Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields under Climate Change

B Basso; B Dumont; B  Maestrini; I.  Shcherbak; G.P.  Robertson; J.R. Porter; P. Smith; K. Paustian; P.R. Grace; S. Asseng; S. Bassu; C. Biernath; K.J.  Boote; D. Cammarano; G. de Sanctis; J.-L. Durand; F. Ewert; S. Gayler; R Grant; D.W.  Hyndman; J Kent; P Martre; C. Nendel; E. Priesack; D. Ripoche; A.C.  Ruane; J. Sharp; P.J. Thorburn; J.L. Hatfield; J.W. Jones; C. Rosenzweig

doi:10.2134/ael2018.05.0026

Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields under Climate Change

B Basso, B Dumont, B Maestrini, I. Shcherbak, G.P. Robertson, J.R. Porter, P. Smith, K. Paustian, P.R. Grace, S. Asseng, S. Bassu, C. Biernath, K.J. Boote, D. Cammarano, G. de Sanctis, J.-L. Durand, F. Ewert, S. Gayler, R Grant, D.W. HyndmanJ Kent, P Martre, C. Nendel, E. Priesack, D. Ripoche, A.C. Ruane, J. Sharp, P.J. Thorburn, J.L. Hatfield, J.W. Jones, C. Rosenzweig

Aberdeen Centre For Environmental Sustainability

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Abstract

A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO2 concentrations on maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3°C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3°C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3°C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6°C, relative to the baseline CO2 scenario.

Original language	English
Article number	180026
Journal	Agricultural & Environmental Letters
Volume	3
Issue number	1
Early online date	24 Jul 2018
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2134/ael2018.05.0026
Publication status	Published - 16 Aug 2018

Bibliographical note

Articles in A&EL are published under the CC-BY NC ND (non-commercial; no derivatives) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/). Users are free to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format. Any further publication of the article will require proper attribution; no derivative works may be made from this article; and the article may not be used for any commercial gain (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/). The author is given explicit permission to publish the final article in her/his institutional repository. There is an option for the CC-BY license if required by an author's institution.

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Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields under Climate Change
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the CC BY license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
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Basso, B., Dumont, B., Maestrini, B., Shcherbak, I., Robertson, G. P., Porter, J. R., Smith, P., Paustian, K., Grace, P. R., Asseng, S., Bassu, S., Biernath, C., Boote, K. J., Cammarano, D., de Sanctis, G., Durand, J.-L., Ewert, F., Gayler, S., Grant, R., ... Rosenzweig, C. (2018). Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields under Climate Change. Agricultural & Environmental Letters, 3(1), Article 180026. https://doi.org/10.2134/ael2018.05.0026

Basso, B, Dumont, B, Maestrini, B, Shcherbak, I, Robertson, GP, Porter, JR, Smith, P, Paustian, K, Grace, PR, Asseng, S, Bassu, S, Biernath, C, Boote, KJ, Cammarano, D, de Sanctis, G, Durand, J-L, Ewert, F, Gayler, S, Grant, R, Hyndman, DW, Kent, J, Martre, P, Nendel, C, Priesack, E, Ripoche, D, Ruane, AC, Sharp, J, Thorburn, PJ, Hatfield, JL, Jones, JW & Rosenzweig, C 2018, 'Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields under Climate Change', Agricultural & Environmental Letters, vol. 3, no. 1, 180026. https://doi.org/10.2134/ael2018.05.0026

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title = "Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields under Climate Change",

abstract = "A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO2 concentrations on maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3°C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3°C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3°C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6°C, relative to the baseline CO2 scenario.",

author = "B Basso and B Dumont and B Maestrini and I. Shcherbak and G.P. Robertson and J.R. Porter and P. Smith and K. Paustian and P.R. Grace and S. Asseng and S. Bassu and C. Biernath and K.J. Boote and D. Cammarano and {de Sanctis}, G. and J.-L. Durand and F. Ewert and S. Gayler and R Grant and D.W. Hyndman and J Kent and P Martre and C. Nendel and E. Priesack and D. Ripoche and A.C. Ruane and J. Sharp and P.J. Thorburn and J.L. Hatfield and J.W. Jones and C. Rosenzweig",

note = "Articles in A&EL are published under the CC-BY NC ND (non-commercial; no derivatives) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/). Users are free to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format. Any further publication of the article will require proper attribution; no derivative works may be made from this article; and the article may not be used for any commercial gain (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/). The author is given explicit permission to publish the final article in her/his institutional repository. There is an option for the CC-BY license if required by an author's institution.",

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AU - Dumont, B

AU - Maestrini, B

AU - Shcherbak, I.

AU - Robertson, G.P.

AU - Porter, J.R.

AU - Smith, P.

AU - Paustian, K.

AU - Grace, P.R.

AU - Asseng, S.

AU - Bassu, S.

AU - Biernath, C.

AU - Boote, K.J.

AU - Cammarano, D.

AU - de Sanctis, G.

AU - Durand, J.-L.

AU - Ewert, F.

AU - Gayler, S.

AU - Grant, R

AU - Hyndman, D.W.

AU - Kent, J

AU - Martre, P

AU - Nendel, C.

AU - Priesack, E.

AU - Ripoche, D.

AU - Ruane, A.C.

AU - Sharp, J.

AU - Thorburn, P.J.

AU - Hatfield, J.L.

AU - Jones, J.W.

AU - Rosenzweig, C.

N1 - Articles in A&EL are published under the CC-BY NC ND (non-commercial; no derivatives) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/). Users are free to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format. Any further publication of the article will require proper attribution; no derivative works may be made from this article; and the article may not be used for any commercial gain (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/). The author is given explicit permission to publish the final article in her/his institutional repository. There is an option for the CC-BY license if required by an author's institution.

PY - 2018/8/16

Y1 - 2018/8/16

N2 - A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO2 concentrations on maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3°C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3°C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3°C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6°C, relative to the baseline CO2 scenario.

AB - A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO2 concentrations on maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3°C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3°C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3°C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6°C, relative to the baseline CO2 scenario.

U2 - 10.2134/ael2018.05.0026

DO - 10.2134/ael2018.05.0026

M3 - Article

SN - 2471-9625

VL - 3

JO - Agricultural & Environmental Letters

JF - Agricultural & Environmental Letters

IS - 1

M1 - 180026

ER -

Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields under Climate Change

Abstract

Bibliographical note

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