Spatio-temporal patterns of diarrhoeal mortality in Mexico

W. J. Alonso, R. Acuña-Soto, R. Giglio, J. Nuckols, S. Leyk, C. Schuck-Paim, C. Viboud, M. A. Miller, B. J.J. McCormick*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Diarrhoeal mortality rates in Mexican children dramatically declined during the 1980s and 1990s, concomitant with a temporal shift in peak deaths from summer to autumn-winter. The spatial dynamics of these patterns have not previously been studied. We first describe the seasonal features of paediatric diarrhoeal mortality in Mexico as a whole, then across individual states. While no geographical gradients in the magnitude of diarrhoeal mortality rates have been detected in recent years, we identified a distinct spatial pattern in the timing of peak mortality rate. In the 1980s the summer peak mortality was earliest around Mexico's capital and later in states to the southeast and northwest. Our results suggest that the direction and timing of those annual waves are related to the mean monthly precipitation and mean daily temperature. This pattern has disintegrated in recent years as the summer peak has diminished.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)91-99
Number of pages9
JournalEpidemiology and Infection
Volume140
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2012

Keywords

  • Climate
  • diarrhoea
  • Mexico
  • mortality
  • seasonality

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