Abstract
There are a number of statistical techniques for analysing epidemic outbreaks. However, many diseases are endemic within populations and the analysis of such diseases is complicated by changing population demography. Motivated by the spread of cowpox amongst rodent populations, a combined mathematical model for population and disease dynamics is introduced. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is then constructed to make statistical inference for the model based on data being obtained from a capture-recapture experiment. The statistical analysis is used to identify the key elements in the spread of the cowpox virus.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 2759-2773 |
Number of pages | 15 |
Journal | Journal of Applied Statistics |
Volume | 39 |
Issue number | 12 |
Early online date | 17 Sept 2012 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Dec 2012 |
Bibliographical note
AcknowledgementsData collection was financially supported by National Environment Research Council grant number GR3/9304. This work was supported by a PhD studentship (first author) from the University of Manchester and by MRC grant number
U.1052.00.011.
Keywords
- endemicity
- infectious diseases
- MCMC
- open population