Structural models

Optimizing risk analysis by understanding conceptual uncertainty

C.E. Bond, Z. K. Shipton, A.D. Gibbs, S. Jones

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Geoscience may be regarded as an uncertain science, as it is often based on the interpretation of equivocal data. Analysis of multiple interpretations of a single dataset has shown that conceptual uncertainty can result in a wide range of interpretational outcomes. Many geological models based on a wide variety of concepts were developed by different geoscientists for the same dataset. In this paper we suggest methods to improve the effectiveness of interpretation workflows based on understanding of how geoscientists apply concepts to equivocal datasets, the processes they use, the effects of their previous experience, and their use of broader contextual information. We argue that understanding the influence of conceptual uncertainty on interpretation of equivocal data and modification of current workflow practices can improve risk management.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)65-71
Number of pages7
JournalFirst Break
Volume26
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2008

Fingerprint

risk management
risk analysis
analysis
effect
science
method

Keywords

  • uncertainty
  • structure
  • models

Cite this

Structural models : Optimizing risk analysis by understanding conceptual uncertainty. / Bond, C.E.; Shipton, Z. K.; Gibbs, A.D.; Jones, S.

In: First Break, Vol. 26, No. 6, 06.2008, p. 65-71.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Bond, C.E. ; Shipton, Z. K. ; Gibbs, A.D. ; Jones, S. / Structural models : Optimizing risk analysis by understanding conceptual uncertainty. In: First Break. 2008 ; Vol. 26, No. 6. pp. 65-71.
@article{da1efba9816047bba053dbf909d76061,
title = "Structural models: Optimizing risk analysis by understanding conceptual uncertainty",
abstract = "Geoscience may be regarded as an uncertain science, as it is often based on the interpretation of equivocal data. Analysis of multiple interpretations of a single dataset has shown that conceptual uncertainty can result in a wide range of interpretational outcomes. Many geological models based on a wide variety of concepts were developed by different geoscientists for the same dataset. In this paper we suggest methods to improve the effectiveness of interpretation workflows based on understanding of how geoscientists apply concepts to equivocal datasets, the processes they use, the effects of their previous experience, and their use of broader contextual information. We argue that understanding the influence of conceptual uncertainty on interpretation of equivocal data and modification of current workflow practices can improve risk management.",
keywords = "uncertainty , structure, models",
author = "C.E. Bond and Shipton, {Z. K.} and A.D. Gibbs and S. Jones",
year = "2008",
month = "6",
doi = "10.3997/1365-2397.2008006",
language = "English",
volume = "26",
pages = "65--71",
journal = "First Break",
issn = "0263-5046",
publisher = "EAGE Publishing BV",
number = "6",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Structural models

T2 - Optimizing risk analysis by understanding conceptual uncertainty

AU - Bond, C.E.

AU - Shipton, Z. K.

AU - Gibbs, A.D.

AU - Jones, S.

PY - 2008/6

Y1 - 2008/6

N2 - Geoscience may be regarded as an uncertain science, as it is often based on the interpretation of equivocal data. Analysis of multiple interpretations of a single dataset has shown that conceptual uncertainty can result in a wide range of interpretational outcomes. Many geological models based on a wide variety of concepts were developed by different geoscientists for the same dataset. In this paper we suggest methods to improve the effectiveness of interpretation workflows based on understanding of how geoscientists apply concepts to equivocal datasets, the processes they use, the effects of their previous experience, and their use of broader contextual information. We argue that understanding the influence of conceptual uncertainty on interpretation of equivocal data and modification of current workflow practices can improve risk management.

AB - Geoscience may be regarded as an uncertain science, as it is often based on the interpretation of equivocal data. Analysis of multiple interpretations of a single dataset has shown that conceptual uncertainty can result in a wide range of interpretational outcomes. Many geological models based on a wide variety of concepts were developed by different geoscientists for the same dataset. In this paper we suggest methods to improve the effectiveness of interpretation workflows based on understanding of how geoscientists apply concepts to equivocal datasets, the processes they use, the effects of their previous experience, and their use of broader contextual information. We argue that understanding the influence of conceptual uncertainty on interpretation of equivocal data and modification of current workflow practices can improve risk management.

KW - uncertainty

KW - structure

KW - models

U2 - 10.3997/1365-2397.2008006

DO - 10.3997/1365-2397.2008006

M3 - Article

VL - 26

SP - 65

EP - 71

JO - First Break

JF - First Break

SN - 0263-5046

IS - 6

ER -