The present review article by Andrew Morozov and co-authors is timely and highly relevant to ecological systems . Long-term predictions constitute a fundamental challenge in ecology, epidemiology and climate science. Reliable forecasting is difficult because of sensitive dependence on initial conditions (the hallmark of chaos) , noise, and incomplete data. Another obstacle to reliable prediction of ecosystems is a phenomenon known as “regime shift” , where any conclusions or estimates based on the observations made before the regime shift become irrelevant after the shift. The timing of the regime shift is difficult to predict and the problem of identifying early warning signals remains largely open.
- Dynamics of ecological systems
- Transient dynamics