Sudden regime shifts after apparent stasis: Comment on “Long transients in ecology: Theory and applications” by Andrew Morozov et al.

Celso Grebogi* (Corresponding Author)

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalComment/debate


The present review article by Andrew Morozov and co-authors is timely and highly relevant to ecological systems [1]. Long-term predictions constitute a fundamental challenge in ecology, epidemiology and climate science. Reliable forecasting is difficult because of sensitive dependence on initial conditions (the hallmark of chaos) [2], noise, and incomplete data. Another obstacle to reliable prediction of ecosystems is a phenomenon known as “regime shift” [3], where any conclusions or estimates based on the observations made before the regime shift become irrelevant after the shift. The timing of the regime shift is difficult to predict and the problem of identifying early warning signals remains largely open.
Original languageEnglish
JournalPhysics of Life Reviews
Early online date28 Nov 2019
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 28 Nov 2019



  • Dynamics of ecological systems
  • Transient dynamics

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