Sudden regime shifts after apparent stasis: Comment on “Long transients in ecology: Theory and applications” by Andrew Morozov et al.

Celso Grebogi* (Corresponding Author)

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalComment/debate

Abstract

The present review article by Andrew Morozov and co-authors is timely and highly relevant to ecological systems [1]. Long-term predictions constitute a fundamental challenge in ecology, epidemiology and climate science. Reliable forecasting is difficult because of sensitive dependence on initial conditions (the hallmark of chaos) [2], noise, and incomplete data. Another obstacle to reliable prediction of ecosystems is a phenomenon known as “regime shift” [3], where any conclusions or estimates based on the observations made before the regime shift become irrelevant after the shift. The timing of the regime shift is difficult to predict and the problem of identifying early warning signals remains largely open.
Original languageEnglish
JournalPhysics of Life Reviews
Early online date28 Nov 2019
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 28 Nov 2019

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ecology
chaotic dynamics
epidemiology
prediction
ecosystem
climate
science

Keywords

  • Dynamics of ecological systems
  • Transient dynamics

Cite this

@article{136c1b29293a44d7958c59943a1b21ee,
title = "Sudden regime shifts after apparent stasis: Comment on “Long transients in ecology: Theory and applications” by Andrew Morozov et al.",
abstract = "The present review article by Andrew Morozov and co-authors is timely and highly relevant to ecological systems [1]. Long-term predictions constitute a fundamental challenge in ecology, epidemiology and climate science. Reliable forecasting is difficult because of sensitive dependence on initial conditions (the hallmark of chaos) [2], noise, and incomplete data. Another obstacle to reliable prediction of ecosystems is a phenomenon known as “regime shift” [3], where any conclusions or estimates based on the observations made before the regime shift become irrelevant after the shift. The timing of the regime shift is difficult to predict and the problem of identifying early warning signals remains largely open.",
keywords = "Dynamics of ecological systems, Transient dynamics",
author = "Celso Grebogi",
note = "Acknowledgements The work is funded by the University of Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.",
year = "2019",
month = "11",
day = "28",
doi = "10.1016/j.plrev.2019.11.009",
language = "English",
journal = "Physics of Life Reviews",
issn = "1571-0645",
publisher = "Elsevier",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Sudden regime shifts after apparent stasis

T2 - Comment on “Long transients in ecology: Theory and applications” by Andrew Morozov et al.

AU - Grebogi, Celso

N1 - Acknowledgements The work is funded by the University of Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.

PY - 2019/11/28

Y1 - 2019/11/28

N2 - The present review article by Andrew Morozov and co-authors is timely and highly relevant to ecological systems [1]. Long-term predictions constitute a fundamental challenge in ecology, epidemiology and climate science. Reliable forecasting is difficult because of sensitive dependence on initial conditions (the hallmark of chaos) [2], noise, and incomplete data. Another obstacle to reliable prediction of ecosystems is a phenomenon known as “regime shift” [3], where any conclusions or estimates based on the observations made before the regime shift become irrelevant after the shift. The timing of the regime shift is difficult to predict and the problem of identifying early warning signals remains largely open.

AB - The present review article by Andrew Morozov and co-authors is timely and highly relevant to ecological systems [1]. Long-term predictions constitute a fundamental challenge in ecology, epidemiology and climate science. Reliable forecasting is difficult because of sensitive dependence on initial conditions (the hallmark of chaos) [2], noise, and incomplete data. Another obstacle to reliable prediction of ecosystems is a phenomenon known as “regime shift” [3], where any conclusions or estimates based on the observations made before the regime shift become irrelevant after the shift. The timing of the regime shift is difficult to predict and the problem of identifying early warning signals remains largely open.

KW - Dynamics of ecological systems

KW - Transient dynamics

U2 - 10.1016/j.plrev.2019.11.009

DO - 10.1016/j.plrev.2019.11.009

M3 - Comment/debate

JO - Physics of Life Reviews

JF - Physics of Life Reviews

SN - 1571-0645

ER -