Swanson's 30-40-30 rule

A Hurst, G C Brown, R I Swanson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

31 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Evaluation of the possible range of reserves associated with a prospect is a key part of risk taking in hydrocarbon exploration. The challenge of presenting a range of geologically possible models for a range of prospect reserve estimates is addressed using Swanson's 30-40-30 rule. Swanson's rule defines the mean as 0.3P(10) + 0.4P(50) + 0.3P(90), and provides a good approximation to the mean values for modestly skewed distributions. Pragmatic and mathematical justifications for this rule are given. Applications of the rule to a historical field size distribution and a specific prospect evaluation demonstrate its efficacy in handling routine problems in hydrocarbon exploration, with particular reference to use with the lognormal distribution.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1883-1891
Number of pages9
JournalAAPG Bulletin
Volume84
Publication statusPublished - 2000

Keywords

  • UNCERTAINTY
  • RISK

Cite this

Hurst, A., Brown, G. C., & Swanson, R. I. (2000). Swanson's 30-40-30 rule. AAPG Bulletin, 84, 1883-1891.

Swanson's 30-40-30 rule. / Hurst, A ; Brown, G C ; Swanson, R I .

In: AAPG Bulletin, Vol. 84, 2000, p. 1883-1891.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Hurst, A, Brown, GC & Swanson, RI 2000, 'Swanson's 30-40-30 rule', AAPG Bulletin, vol. 84, pp. 1883-1891.
Hurst A, Brown GC, Swanson RI. Swanson's 30-40-30 rule. AAPG Bulletin. 2000;84:1883-1891.
Hurst, A ; Brown, G C ; Swanson, R I . / Swanson's 30-40-30 rule. In: AAPG Bulletin. 2000 ; Vol. 84. pp. 1883-1891.
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