The effects of macroeconomic conditions at graduation on overeducation

Fraser Summerfield (Corresponding Author), Ioannis Theodossiou

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)
6 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

This paper shows that unfavourable economic conditions at graduation decrease
the likelihood of a good job-worker match over a worker’s subsequent
career. Mismatch is quantified in terms of overeducation by both industry and
occupation. The German Socio-Economic Panel and region-level unemployment
rates from 1994-2012 are used. Instrumental Variables estimates account
for endogenous graduation timing. A single percentage point increase in regional unemployment causes an increase in the probability of overeducation
of 1.6-1.7 percentage points for university graduates. Effects for technical tertiary education and apprenticeship graduates are smaller. Labour market entry conditions affect workers for up to 9 years after graduation.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1370-1387
Number of pages18
JournalEconomic Inquiry
Volume55
Issue number3
Early online date3 Mar 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2017

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