The potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of Nepenthes and dipterocarps of the Trus Madi Forest Reserve

Colin R Maycock, Richard Majapun, Eyen Khoo, Joan Pereira, John Sugau, David Francis Robert Philip Burslem

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Abstract

We used past collection records and data collected during the Scientific Biodiversity Expedition to the Trus Madi Forest Reserve to generate ecological niche models (ENMs) for two Nepenthes species (N. macrophylla and N. lowii) and two dipterocarp species (Hopea montana and Shorea monticola). The ENMs were developed using soil and current climatic data. The ENMs were then projected over downscaled climate predictions from the CCCMA’s General Circulation Model for the years 2050 and 2080 to model the potential impacts of climate change, under the A2a and B2a emission scenarios, on these species. The predicted impacts of climate change on these four species varied under the different emission scenarios and time frames. Nepenthese macrophylla is predicted to be the most severely affected species, with its preferred climate envelope predicted to disappear from Trus Madi by the year 2050. This loss of preferred climate envelope may increase the likelihood of this species becoming extinct.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationConservation of biodiversity in Trus Madi Forest Reserve
EditorsRahim Sulaiman, Anuar Mohammad, Vun Khen Chey
Place of PublicationSandakan, Malaysia
PublisherSabah Forestry Department
Pages95-104
Number of pages10
ISBN (Print)978-967-0180-02-1
Publication statusPublished - 2011

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    Maycock, C. R., Majapun, R., Khoo, E., Pereira, J., Sugau, J., & Burslem, D. F. R. P. (2011). The potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of Nepenthes and dipterocarps of the Trus Madi Forest Reserve. In R. Sulaiman, A. Mohammad, & V. K. Chey (Eds.), Conservation of biodiversity in Trus Madi Forest Reserve (pp. 95-104). Sabah Forestry Department.