The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

N. Fitton; P. Alexander; N. Arnell; B. Bajzelj; K. Calvin; J. Doelman; J.S. Gerber; P. Havlik; T. Hasegawa; M. Herrero; T. Krisztin; H. van Meijl; T. Powell; R. Sands; E. Stehfest; P.C. West; P. Smith

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944

The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

N. Fitton^* (Corresponding Author), P. Alexander, N. Arnell, B. Bajzelj, K. Calvin, J. Doelman, J.S. Gerber, P. Havlik, T. Hasegawa, M. Herrero, T. Krisztin, H. van Meijl, T. Powell, R. Sands, E. Stehfest, P.C. West, P. Smith

^*Corresponding author for this work

Aberdeen Centre For Environmental Sustainability

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

122 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.

Original language	English
Article number	101944
Journal	Global Environmental Change
Volume	58
Early online date	19 Jul 2019
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944
Publication status	Published - Sept 2019

Bibliographical note

This work contributes to the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI funded DEVIL project (NE/M021327/1).

The contribution of R. Sands was supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. The findings and conclusions in this publication are those of the authors and should not be construed to represent any official USDA or U.S. Government determination or policy.

Keywords

Land use
Food security
Water availability
Shared socio-economic pathways
GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS
UNCERTAINTY
CHOICES
IMPACTS
GAPS
EFFICIENCY
CROP

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity
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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378018307489

Cite this

Fitton, N., Alexander, P., Arnell, N., Bajzelj, B., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Gerber, J. S., Havlik, P., Hasegawa, T., Herrero, M., Krisztin, T., van Meijl, H., Powell, T., Sands, R., Stehfest, E., West, P. C., & Smith, P. (2019). The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity. Global Environmental Change, 58, Article 101944. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944

Fitton, N, Alexander, P, Arnell, N, Bajzelj, B, Calvin, K, Doelman, J, Gerber, JS, Havlik, P, Hasegawa, T, Herrero, M, Krisztin, T, van Meijl, H, Powell, T, Sands, R, Stehfest, E, West, PC & Smith, P 2019, 'The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity', Global Environmental Change, vol. 58, 101944. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944

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abstract = "Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.",

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note = "This work contributes to the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI funded DEVIL project (NE/M021327/1). The contribution of R. Sands was supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. The findings and conclusions in this publication are those of the authors and should not be construed to represent any official USDA or U.S. Government determination or policy.",

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AU - Alexander, P.

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AU - Bajzelj, B.

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AU - Doelman, J.

AU - Gerber, J.S.

AU - Havlik, P.

AU - Hasegawa, T.

AU - Herrero, M.

AU - Krisztin, T.

AU - van Meijl, H.

AU - Powell, T.

AU - Sands, R.

AU - Stehfest, E.

AU - West, P.C.

AU - Smith, P.

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N2 - Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.

AB - Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.

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KW - CHOICES

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M1 - 101944

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The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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