Uncertainty in the Demand for Electric Vehicles: An analysis of its location and governmental response

The introduction of Electric Vehicles (EVs) into the passenger vehicle market has, in recent years, become viewed as a primary solution to the significant carbon emissions attributed to personal mobility in the current transportation system. These vehicles range from those which can be viewed as existing within the current technological regime, such as hybrid vehicles, to those which, by their nature, exist on a different technological pathway and are categorized as disruptive innovations. The greatest emission reduction potentials currently exist in these disruptive innovation pathways, notably pure battery electric powertrain systems. The UK and EU Governments have played an active role in steering the development and market introduction of EVs. Policies have been formulated and introduced to engage the consumer by raising awareness of these alternative options, incentivise adoption through fiscal measures and establish the necessary infrastructure. However, a great deal of uncertainty remains regarding the effectiveness of these policies and the viability of the EV technology in the mainstream automotive market. This paper investigates the prevalence of uncertainty concerning demand for EVs. This is achieved through the application of a conceptual framework which assesses the location of uncertainty. UK and EU Government policy documents are assessed through a rapid evidence review alongside contributions from academia to determine how uncertainty has been reduced. Specific attention is paid to the complexities of governmental policy making in an uncertain environment and how policy makers have responded to this challenge. Preliminary results from the analysis are presented and discussed alongside an overview of the selected methodology utilised in the evaluation.