Understanding bias

An example of 'concept uncertainty' in seismic interpretation

Clare Elizabeth Bond, Alan D Gibbs, Zoe K Shipton, Serena Jones

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingOther contribution

Abstract

To maximize the commercial value of new ventures we need to increase our own understanding of the geology of petroleum systems and to deal with this information strategically within industry workflows. We have investigated the initial stages of the geological workflow and designed experiments to quantify how professionals develop a geological interpretation from seismic data. Our experiments consider both the process of developing an interpretation and the final model or concept produced. In a number of "blind" trials we have demonstrated a less than 21% interpretational success rate in identifying a known tectonic setting and a less than 2% success at identifying 90% of the key features. The range of concepts produced and their variance from the known solution results in a high level of uncertainty in a critical part of the industry workflow. This uncertainty has significant implications for decision making and risk management. Our results quantify the uncertainty within geological interpretation and show that prior knowledge has an effect on the type of geological interpretations and concepts produced.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSociety of Petroleum Engineers
Subtitle of host publication69th European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers Conference and Exhibition 2007 - "Securing the Future" 5
Publishersociety of petroleum engineers
Pages2882-2886
Number of pages5
Volume5
ISBN (Print)9781605601557
Publication statusPublished - 2007
EventEUROPEAN ASSOCIATION OF GEOSCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS CONFERENCE AND EXHIBITION. 69TH - London, United Kingdom
Duration: 11 Jun 200714 Jun 2007

Conference

ConferenceEUROPEAN ASSOCIATION OF GEOSCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS CONFERENCE AND EXHIBITION. 69TH
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityLondon
Period11/06/0714/06/07

Fingerprint

industry
tectonic setting
seismic data
experiment
petroleum
decision making
geology
trial
effect
rate
risk management

Cite this

Bond, C. E., Gibbs, A. D., Shipton, Z. K., & Jones, S. (2007). Understanding bias: An example of 'concept uncertainty' in seismic interpretation. In Society of Petroleum Engineers : 69th European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers Conference and Exhibition 2007 - "Securing the Future" 5 (Vol. 5, pp. 2882-2886 ). society of petroleum engineers.

Understanding bias : An example of 'concept uncertainty' in seismic interpretation. / Bond, Clare Elizabeth; Gibbs, Alan D; Shipton, Zoe K; Jones, Serena.

Society of Petroleum Engineers : 69th European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers Conference and Exhibition 2007 - "Securing the Future" 5. Vol. 5 society of petroleum engineers, 2007. p. 2882-2886 .

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingOther contribution

Bond, CE, Gibbs, AD, Shipton, ZK & Jones, S 2007, Understanding bias: An example of 'concept uncertainty' in seismic interpretation. in Society of Petroleum Engineers : 69th European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers Conference and Exhibition 2007 - "Securing the Future" 5. vol. 5, society of petroleum engineers, pp. 2882-2886 , EUROPEAN ASSOCIATION OF GEOSCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS CONFERENCE AND EXHIBITION. 69TH , London, United Kingdom, 11/06/07.
Bond CE, Gibbs AD, Shipton ZK, Jones S. Understanding bias: An example of 'concept uncertainty' in seismic interpretation. In Society of Petroleum Engineers : 69th European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers Conference and Exhibition 2007 - "Securing the Future" 5. Vol. 5. society of petroleum engineers. 2007. p. 2882-2886
Bond, Clare Elizabeth ; Gibbs, Alan D ; Shipton, Zoe K ; Jones, Serena. / Understanding bias : An example of 'concept uncertainty' in seismic interpretation. Society of Petroleum Engineers : 69th European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers Conference and Exhibition 2007 - "Securing the Future" 5. Vol. 5 society of petroleum engineers, 2007. pp. 2882-2886
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