Using scenarios to explore UK upland futures

Mark Reed, K. Arblaster, C. Bullock, Rob Burton, A.L. Davies, James Holden, K. Hubacek, R. May, J. Mitchley, J. Morris, D. Nainggolan, C. Potter, C. H. Quinn, V. Swales, S. Thorp

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

25 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Uplands around the world are facing significant social, economic and environmental changes, and decision-makers need to better understand what the future may hold if they are to adapt and maintain upland goods and services. This paper draws together all major research comprising eight studies that have used scenarios to describe possible futures for UK uplands. The paper evaluates which scenarios are perceived by stakeholders to be most likely and desirable, and assesses the benefits and drawbacks of the scenario methods used in UK uplands to date. Stakeholders agreed that the most desirable and likely scenario would be a continuation of hill farming (albeit at reduced levels) based on cross-compliance with environmental measures. The least desirable scenario is a withdrawal of government financial support for hill farming. Although this was deemed by stakeholders to be the least likely scenario, the loss of government support warrants close attention due to its potential implications for the local economy. Stakeholders noted that the environmental implications of this scenario are much less clear-cut. As such, there is an urgent need to understand the full implications of this scenario, so that upland stakeholders can adequately prepare, and policy-makers can better evaluate the likely implications of different policy options. The paper concludes that in future, upland scenario research needs to: (1) better integrate in-depth and representative participation from stakeholders during both scenario development and evaluation; and (2) make more effective use of visualisation techniques and simulation models. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)619-630
Number of pages12
JournalPolicy Futures in Education
Volume41
Issue number9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2009

Keywords

  • conservation management
  • landscapes
  • moorland
  • lessons
  • Europe

Cite this

Reed, M., Arblaster, K., Bullock, C., Burton, R., Davies, A. L., Holden, J., ... Thorp, S. (2009). Using scenarios to explore UK upland futures. Policy Futures in Education, 41(9), 619-630. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.04.007

Using scenarios to explore UK upland futures. / Reed, Mark; Arblaster, K.; Bullock, C.; Burton, Rob; Davies, A.L.; Holden, James; Hubacek, K.; May, R.; Mitchley, J.; Morris, J.; Nainggolan, D.; Potter, C.; Quinn, C. H.; Swales, V.; Thorp, S.

In: Policy Futures in Education, Vol. 41, No. 9, 11.2009, p. 619-630.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Reed, M, Arblaster, K, Bullock, C, Burton, R, Davies, AL, Holden, J, Hubacek, K, May, R, Mitchley, J, Morris, J, Nainggolan, D, Potter, C, Quinn, CH, Swales, V & Thorp, S 2009, 'Using scenarios to explore UK upland futures' Policy Futures in Education, vol. 41, no. 9, pp. 619-630. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.04.007
Reed M, Arblaster K, Bullock C, Burton R, Davies AL, Holden J et al. Using scenarios to explore UK upland futures. Policy Futures in Education. 2009 Nov;41(9):619-630. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.04.007
Reed, Mark ; Arblaster, K. ; Bullock, C. ; Burton, Rob ; Davies, A.L. ; Holden, James ; Hubacek, K. ; May, R. ; Mitchley, J. ; Morris, J. ; Nainggolan, D. ; Potter, C. ; Quinn, C. H. ; Swales, V. ; Thorp, S. / Using scenarios to explore UK upland futures. In: Policy Futures in Education. 2009 ; Vol. 41, No. 9. pp. 619-630.
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