Weakened growth of cropland N2O emissions in China associated with nationwide policy interventions

Ziyin Shang, Feng Zhou (Corresponding Author), Pete Smith, Eri Saikawa, Philippe Ciais, Jinfeng Chang, Hanqin Tian, Stephen J. Del Grosso, Akihiko Ito, Minpeng Chen, Qihui Wang, Yan Bo, Xiaoqing Cui, Simona Castaldi, Radoslaw Juszczak, Åsa Kasimir, Enzo Magliulo, Sergiy Medinets, Volodymyr Medinets, Robert M. Rees & 2 others Georg Wohlfahrt, Simone Sabbatini

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

China has experienced rapid agricultural development over recent decades, accompanied by increased fertilizer consumption in croplands, yet the trend and drivers of the associated nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions remain uncertain. The primary sources of this uncertainty are the coarse spatial variation of activity data and the incomplete model representation of N2O emissions in response to agricultural management. Here we provide new data-driven estimates of cropland N2O emissions across China in 1990-2014, compiled using a global cropland-N2O flux observation dataset, nationwide survey-based reconstruction of N-fertilization and irrigation, and an updated nonlinear model. In addition, we have evaluated the drivers behind changing cropland N2O patterns using an index decomposition analysis approach. We find that Chinaís annual cropland-N2O emissions increased on average by 11.2 Gg N yr-2 (P < 0.001) from 1990 to 2003, after which emissions plateaued until 2014 (2.8 Gg N yr-2,P = 0.02), consistent with the output from an ensemble of process-based terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The slowdown of the increase in cropland-N2O emissions after 2003 was pervasive across two thirds of Chinaís sowing areas. This change was mainly driven by the nationwide reduction of N-fertilizer applied per area, partially due to the prevalence of the Nationwide Soil Testing and Formulation Fertilization Program that was launched in the early 2000s. This reduction has almost offset the N2O emissions induced by policy-driven expansion of sowing areas, particularly in the Northeast Plain and the lower Yangtze River Basin. Our results underline the importance of high-resolution activity data and adoption of nonlinear model of N2O emission for capturing cropland-N2O emission changes. Improving the representation of policy interventions is also recommended for future projections.
Original languageEnglish
JournalGlobal Change Biology
Early online date19 Jul 2019
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 19 Jul 2019

Fingerprint

Fertilizers
Soil testing
Nitrous Oxide
Irrigation
Catchments
sowing
Rivers
Fluxes
Decomposition
fertilizer
policy
decomposition analysis
agricultural management
agricultural development
nitrous oxide
biosphere
spatial variation
river basin
irrigation
soil

Keywords

  • Nitrous oxide
  • agricultural soils
  • emission inventory
  • flux upscaling
  • agricultural management
  • process-based model
  • temporal trend
  • spatial pattern
  • land surface model
  • nitrous oxide
  • policy analysis
  • ORGANIC-MATTER CONTENT
  • DEPOSITION
  • NITROUS-OXIDE EMISSIONS
  • MODEL
  • OPPORTUNITIES
  • INVENTORY
  • PRODUCTIVITY
  • AGRICULTURAL SOILS
  • MITIGATION
  • N2O EMISSIONS

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Ecology
  • Environmental Chemistry

Cite this

Weakened growth of cropland N2O emissions in China associated with nationwide policy interventions. / Shang, Ziyin; Zhou, Feng (Corresponding Author); Smith, Pete; Saikawa, Eri; Ciais, Philippe; Chang, Jinfeng; Tian, Hanqin; Del Grosso, Stephen J.; Ito, Akihiko; Chen, Minpeng; Wang, Qihui; Bo, Yan; Cui, Xiaoqing; Castaldi, Simona; Juszczak, Radoslaw; Kasimir, Åsa; Magliulo, Enzo; Medinets, Sergiy; Medinets, Volodymyr; Rees, Robert M.; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Sabbatini, Simone.

In: Global Change Biology, 19.07.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Shang, Z, Zhou, F, Smith, P, Saikawa, E, Ciais, P, Chang, J, Tian, H, Del Grosso, SJ, Ito, A, Chen, M, Wang, Q, Bo, Y, Cui, X, Castaldi, S, Juszczak, R, Kasimir, Å, Magliulo, E, Medinets, S, Medinets, V, Rees, RM, Wohlfahrt, G & Sabbatini, S 2019, 'Weakened growth of cropland N2O emissions in China associated with nationwide policy interventions' Global Change Biology. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14741
Shang, Ziyin ; Zhou, Feng ; Smith, Pete ; Saikawa, Eri ; Ciais, Philippe ; Chang, Jinfeng ; Tian, Hanqin ; Del Grosso, Stephen J. ; Ito, Akihiko ; Chen, Minpeng ; Wang, Qihui ; Bo, Yan ; Cui, Xiaoqing ; Castaldi, Simona ; Juszczak, Radoslaw ; Kasimir, Åsa ; Magliulo, Enzo ; Medinets, Sergiy ; Medinets, Volodymyr ; Rees, Robert M. ; Wohlfahrt, Georg ; Sabbatini, Simone. / Weakened growth of cropland N2O emissions in China associated with nationwide policy interventions. In: Global Change Biology. 2019.
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title = "Weakened growth of cropland N2O emissions in China associated with nationwide policy interventions",
abstract = "China has experienced rapid agricultural development over recent decades, accompanied by increased fertilizer consumption in croplands, yet the trend and drivers of the associated nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions remain uncertain. The primary sources of this uncertainty are the coarse spatial variation of activity data and the incomplete model representation of N2O emissions in response to agricultural management. Here we provide new data-driven estimates of cropland N2O emissions across China in 1990-2014, compiled using a global cropland-N2O flux observation dataset, nationwide survey-based reconstruction of N-fertilization and irrigation, and an updated nonlinear model. In addition, we have evaluated the drivers behind changing cropland N2O patterns using an index decomposition analysis approach. We find that China{\'i}s annual cropland-N2O emissions increased on average by 11.2 Gg N yr-2 (P < 0.001) from 1990 to 2003, after which emissions plateaued until 2014 (2.8 Gg N yr-2,P = 0.02), consistent with the output from an ensemble of process-based terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The slowdown of the increase in cropland-N2O emissions after 2003 was pervasive across two thirds of China{\'i}s sowing areas. This change was mainly driven by the nationwide reduction of N-fertilizer applied per area, partially due to the prevalence of the Nationwide Soil Testing and Formulation Fertilization Program that was launched in the early 2000s. This reduction has almost offset the N2O emissions induced by policy-driven expansion of sowing areas, particularly in the Northeast Plain and the lower Yangtze River Basin. Our results underline the importance of high-resolution activity data and adoption of nonlinear model of N2O emission for capturing cropland-N2O emission changes. Improving the representation of policy interventions is also recommended for future projections.",
keywords = "Nitrous oxide, agricultural soils, emission inventory, flux upscaling, agricultural management, process-based model, temporal trend, spatial pattern, land surface model, nitrous oxide, policy analysis, ORGANIC-MATTER CONTENT, DEPOSITION, NITROUS-OXIDE EMISSIONS, MODEL, OPPORTUNITIES, INVENTORY, PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL SOILS, MITIGATION, N2O EMISSIONS",
author = "Ziyin Shang and Feng Zhou and Pete Smith and Eri Saikawa and Philippe Ciais and Jinfeng Chang and Hanqin Tian and {Del Grosso}, {Stephen J.} and Akihiko Ito and Minpeng Chen and Qihui Wang and Yan Bo and Xiaoqing Cui and Simona Castaldi and Radoslaw Juszczak and {\AA}sa Kasimir and Enzo Magliulo and Sergiy Medinets and Volodymyr Medinets and Rees, {Robert M.} and Georg Wohlfahrt and Simone Sabbatini",
note = "This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41671464; 7181101181), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFD0800501; 2018YFC0213304), 111 Project (B14001), the GCP-INI Global N2O Budget and the INMS Asia Demo Activities. The input of P.S. contributes to the UK-China Virtual Joint Centre on Nitrogen {\`i}N-Circle{\^i} funded by the Newton Fund via UK BBSRC/NERC (BB/N013484/1). We acknowledged Eric Ceschia, Kristiina Regina, Dario Papale, and the NANORP for sharing a part of observation data.",
year = "2019",
month = "7",
day = "19",
doi = "10.1111/gcb.14741",
language = "English",
journal = "Global Change Biology",
issn = "1354-1013",
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Weakened growth of cropland N2O emissions in China associated with nationwide policy interventions

AU - Shang, Ziyin

AU - Zhou, Feng

AU - Smith, Pete

AU - Saikawa, Eri

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Chang, Jinfeng

AU - Tian, Hanqin

AU - Del Grosso, Stephen J.

AU - Ito, Akihiko

AU - Chen, Minpeng

AU - Wang, Qihui

AU - Bo, Yan

AU - Cui, Xiaoqing

AU - Castaldi, Simona

AU - Juszczak, Radoslaw

AU - Kasimir, Åsa

AU - Magliulo, Enzo

AU - Medinets, Sergiy

AU - Medinets, Volodymyr

AU - Rees, Robert M.

AU - Wohlfahrt, Georg

AU - Sabbatini, Simone

N1 - This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41671464; 7181101181), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFD0800501; 2018YFC0213304), 111 Project (B14001), the GCP-INI Global N2O Budget and the INMS Asia Demo Activities. The input of P.S. contributes to the UK-China Virtual Joint Centre on Nitrogen ìN-Circleî funded by the Newton Fund via UK BBSRC/NERC (BB/N013484/1). We acknowledged Eric Ceschia, Kristiina Regina, Dario Papale, and the NANORP for sharing a part of observation data.

PY - 2019/7/19

Y1 - 2019/7/19

N2 - China has experienced rapid agricultural development over recent decades, accompanied by increased fertilizer consumption in croplands, yet the trend and drivers of the associated nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions remain uncertain. The primary sources of this uncertainty are the coarse spatial variation of activity data and the incomplete model representation of N2O emissions in response to agricultural management. Here we provide new data-driven estimates of cropland N2O emissions across China in 1990-2014, compiled using a global cropland-N2O flux observation dataset, nationwide survey-based reconstruction of N-fertilization and irrigation, and an updated nonlinear model. In addition, we have evaluated the drivers behind changing cropland N2O patterns using an index decomposition analysis approach. We find that Chinaís annual cropland-N2O emissions increased on average by 11.2 Gg N yr-2 (P < 0.001) from 1990 to 2003, after which emissions plateaued until 2014 (2.8 Gg N yr-2,P = 0.02), consistent with the output from an ensemble of process-based terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The slowdown of the increase in cropland-N2O emissions after 2003 was pervasive across two thirds of Chinaís sowing areas. This change was mainly driven by the nationwide reduction of N-fertilizer applied per area, partially due to the prevalence of the Nationwide Soil Testing and Formulation Fertilization Program that was launched in the early 2000s. This reduction has almost offset the N2O emissions induced by policy-driven expansion of sowing areas, particularly in the Northeast Plain and the lower Yangtze River Basin. Our results underline the importance of high-resolution activity data and adoption of nonlinear model of N2O emission for capturing cropland-N2O emission changes. Improving the representation of policy interventions is also recommended for future projections.

AB - China has experienced rapid agricultural development over recent decades, accompanied by increased fertilizer consumption in croplands, yet the trend and drivers of the associated nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions remain uncertain. The primary sources of this uncertainty are the coarse spatial variation of activity data and the incomplete model representation of N2O emissions in response to agricultural management. Here we provide new data-driven estimates of cropland N2O emissions across China in 1990-2014, compiled using a global cropland-N2O flux observation dataset, nationwide survey-based reconstruction of N-fertilization and irrigation, and an updated nonlinear model. In addition, we have evaluated the drivers behind changing cropland N2O patterns using an index decomposition analysis approach. We find that Chinaís annual cropland-N2O emissions increased on average by 11.2 Gg N yr-2 (P < 0.001) from 1990 to 2003, after which emissions plateaued until 2014 (2.8 Gg N yr-2,P = 0.02), consistent with the output from an ensemble of process-based terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The slowdown of the increase in cropland-N2O emissions after 2003 was pervasive across two thirds of Chinaís sowing areas. This change was mainly driven by the nationwide reduction of N-fertilizer applied per area, partially due to the prevalence of the Nationwide Soil Testing and Formulation Fertilization Program that was launched in the early 2000s. This reduction has almost offset the N2O emissions induced by policy-driven expansion of sowing areas, particularly in the Northeast Plain and the lower Yangtze River Basin. Our results underline the importance of high-resolution activity data and adoption of nonlinear model of N2O emission for capturing cropland-N2O emission changes. Improving the representation of policy interventions is also recommended for future projections.

KW - Nitrous oxide

KW - agricultural soils

KW - emission inventory

KW - flux upscaling

KW - agricultural management

KW - process-based model

KW - temporal trend

KW - spatial pattern

KW - land surface model

KW - nitrous oxide

KW - policy analysis

KW - ORGANIC-MATTER CONTENT

KW - DEPOSITION

KW - NITROUS-OXIDE EMISSIONS

KW - MODEL

KW - OPPORTUNITIES

KW - INVENTORY

KW - PRODUCTIVITY

KW - AGRICULTURAL SOILS

KW - MITIGATION

KW - N2O EMISSIONS

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UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14741

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DO - 10.1111/gcb.14741

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JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

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