Abstract
Crispin Wright has given an explanation of how a first time warrant can
fall short of transmitting across a known entailment. Formal epistemologists have
struggled to turn Wright’s informal explanation into cogent Bayesian reasoning. In
this paper, I analyse two Bayesian models of Wright’s account respectively proposed by Samir Okasha and Jake Chandler. I argue that both formalizations are unsatisfactory for different reasons, and I lay down a third Bayesian model that appears to me to capture the valid kernel of Wright’s explanation. After this, I consider a recent development in Wright’s account of transmission failure.Wright suggests that his condition sufficient for transmission failure of first time warrant also suffices for transmission failure of supplementary warrant. I propose an interpretation of Wright’s suggestion that shields it from objections. I then lay down a fourth Bayesian framework that provides a simplified model of the unified explanation of transmission failure envisaged by Wright.
fall short of transmitting across a known entailment. Formal epistemologists have
struggled to turn Wright’s informal explanation into cogent Bayesian reasoning. In
this paper, I analyse two Bayesian models of Wright’s account respectively proposed by Samir Okasha and Jake Chandler. I argue that both formalizations are unsatisfactory for different reasons, and I lay down a third Bayesian model that appears to me to capture the valid kernel of Wright’s explanation. After this, I consider a recent development in Wright’s account of transmission failure.Wright suggests that his condition sufficient for transmission failure of first time warrant also suffices for transmission failure of supplementary warrant. I propose an interpretation of Wright’s suggestion that shields it from objections. I then lay down a fourth Bayesian framework that provides a simplified model of the unified explanation of transmission failure envisaged by Wright.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 217-234 |
Number of pages | 18 |
Journal | Synthese |
Volume | 184 |
Issue number | 3 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Feb 2012 |
Keywords
- warrant
- transmission of warrant
- Bayesianism
- transmission failure
- Okasha
- Wright
- Chandler
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