A critical reliability evaluation of fibre reinforced composite materials based on probabilistic micro and macro-mechanical analysis

Andrew Shaw, Srinivas Sriramula, Peter D. Gosling, Marios K. Chryssanthopoulos

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93 Citations (Scopus)


In probabilistic composite mechanics, uncertainty modelling may be introduced at a constituent (micro-scale), ply (meso-scale) or component (macro-scale) level. Each of these approaches has particular advantages/limitations and appropriate fusing and benchmarking is desirable in order to improve confidence in probabilistic performance estimates of composite structures. In the present study, random variable based micro and macro-scale reliability analyses are critically compared through a limit state formulation based on the analytical stress tensor components of a rectangular simply supported orthotropic FRP composite plate and the Tsai–Hill failure criterion. The study aims to promote cross-fertilisation of alternative uncertainty modelling approaches in a multi-scale analysis framework. Propagation of uncertainty from micro to macro-scale, and the corresponding influence of changes in random variability on the reliability estimates is quantified. The importance of benchmarking experimentally-based probability distributions of mechanical properties through micro-scale modelling is illustrated, and the confidence that can be placed on reliability estimates is quantified through a series of numerical examples.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)446-453
Number of pages8
JournalComposites Part B: Engineering
Issue number6
Early online date1 Jun 2010
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2010



  • polymer-matrix composites (PMCs)
  • mechanical properties
  • micro-mechanics
  • statistical properties/methods
  • reliability

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