Abstract
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is envisaged as a critical element of most deep decarbonisation pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement. Such a transformational upscaling-to 3-7 Gt CO2/yr by 2050-requires an unprecedented technological, economic, socio-cultural and political effort, along with, crucially, transparent communication between all stakeholders. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that underpin the 1.5 °C scenarios assessed by IPCC have played a critical role in building and assessing deep decarbonisation narratives. However, their high-level aggregation and their complexity can cause them to be perceived as non-transparent by stakeholders outside of the IAM community. This paper bridges this gap by offering a comprehensive assessment of BECCS assumptions as used in IAMs so as to open them to a wider audience. We focus on key assumptions that underpin five aspects of BECCS: Biomass availability, BECCS technologies, CO2 transport and storage infrastructure, BECCS costs, and wider system conditions which favour the deployment of BECCS. Through a structured review, we find that all IAMs communicate wider system assumptions and major cost assumptions transparently. This quality however fades as we dig deeper into modelling details. This is particularly true for sets of technological elements such as CO2 transport and storage infrastructure, for which we found the least transparent assumptions. We also found that IAMs are less transparent on the completeness of their treatment of the five BECCS aspects we investigated, and not transparent regarding the inclusion and treatment of socio-cultural and institutional-regulatory dimensions of feasibility which are key BECCS elements as suggested by the IPCC. We conclude with a practical discussion around ways of increasing IAM transparency as a bridge between this community and stakeholders from other disciplines, policy decision makers, financiers, and the public.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 084008 |
| Number of pages | 16 |
| Journal | Environmental Research Letters |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue number | 8 |
| Early online date | 17 Jul 2020 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Aug 2020 |
Bibliographical note
This work was supported by the UK Energy Research Council (UKERC)-funded project ‘Assessing potential, feasibility and impacts of Bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) in the UK (Access-BECCS)’. We are very grateful to our anonymous reviewers for their constructive feedback which helped us to improve the manuscript.Keywords
- integrated assessment models
- bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
- model assumptions
- transparency
- climate mitigation
- WOODY BIOMASS
- BIOENERGY
- GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS
- SCENARIOS
- ENERGY DEMAND
- LAND
- CO2 EMISSIONS
- PROJECTIONS
- MEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASE
- CLIMATE
Access to Document
- Butnar_etal_Environ._Res._Lett._A_deep_dive.VOR
Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/