A modified human reliability analysis method for the estimation of human error probability in the offloading operations at oil terminals

Renyou Zhang; Henry Tan; Waheed Afzal

doi:10.1002/prs.12223

A modified human reliability analysis method for the estimation of human error probability in the offloading operations at oil terminals

Renyou Zhang^* (Corresponding Author), Henry Tan, Waheed Afzal

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Human error is a significant factor contributing to accidents during oil offloading at oil terminals. Fuzzy cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) is one of the applicable methods to estimate human error probability (HEP). However, the currently used fuzzy CREAM models have issues which weaken the quality of HEP results. Both the max-min fuzzy CREAM and the weighted fuzzy CREAM neglect the compatibility degree of each activated fuzzy if-then rule; besides, the max-min fuzzy CREAM focuses only on the maximum and minimum input data and ignores their weights. Therefore, this paper presents a modified fuzzy CREAM to address all these issues to strengthen the quality of HEP estimation. The proposed approach employs fuzzy degree of each common performance condition (CPC), the weight of each CPC, and the compatibility degree of each activated fuzzy if-then rule together to calculate HEP. The proposed approach is applied for HEP estimation in an oil offloading operation at the selected oil terminal. The final HEP value is estimated at 8.929 × 10−3.Itis concluded that the proposed fuzzy CREAM model can provide more reliable results.

Original language	English
Article number	e12223
Pages (from-to)	84-92
Number of pages	9
Journal	Process Safety Progress
Volume	40
Issue number	3
Early online date	5 Dec 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/prs.12223
Publication status	Published - Sep 2021

Keywords

fuzzy CREAM
human error probability
human reliability
oil offloading
General Chemical Engineering
Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

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title = "A modified human reliability analysis method for the estimation of human error probability in the offloading operations at oil terminals",

abstract = "Human error is a significant factor contributing to accidents during oil offloading at oil terminals. Fuzzy cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) is one of the applicable methods to estimate human error probability (HEP). However, the currently used fuzzy CREAM models have issues which weaken the quality of HEP results. Both the max-min fuzzy CREAM and the weighted fuzzy CREAM neglect the compatibility degree of each activated fuzzy if-then rule; besides, the max-min fuzzy CREAM focuses only on the maximum and minimum input data and ignores their weights. Therefore, this paper presents a modified fuzzy CREAM to address all these issues to strengthen the quality of HEP estimation. The proposed approach employs fuzzy degree of each common performance condition (CPC), the weight of each CPC, and the compatibility degree of each activated fuzzy if-then rule together to calculate HEP. The proposed approach is applied for HEP estimation in an oil offloading operation at the selected oil terminal. The final HEP value is estimated at 8.929 × 10−3.Itis concluded that the proposed fuzzy CREAM model can provide more reliable results.",

keywords = "fuzzy CREAM, human error probability, human reliability, oil offloading, General Chemical Engineering, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality",

author = "Renyou Zhang and Henry Tan and Waheed Afzal",

note = "ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: The authors are grateful to the Beihai Oil Terminal of Sinopec and theDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University for provid-ing their support to conclude this work. The authors would also like toappreciate the editor and the anonymous reviewers for providingvaluable comments.",

year = "2021",

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AU - Zhang, Renyou

AU - Tan, Henry

AU - Afzal, Waheed

N1 - ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: The authors are grateful to the Beihai Oil Terminal of Sinopec and theDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University for provid-ing their support to conclude this work. The authors would also like toappreciate the editor and the anonymous reviewers for providingvaluable comments.

PY - 2021/9

Y1 - 2021/9

N2 - Human error is a significant factor contributing to accidents during oil offloading at oil terminals. Fuzzy cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) is one of the applicable methods to estimate human error probability (HEP). However, the currently used fuzzy CREAM models have issues which weaken the quality of HEP results. Both the max-min fuzzy CREAM and the weighted fuzzy CREAM neglect the compatibility degree of each activated fuzzy if-then rule; besides, the max-min fuzzy CREAM focuses only on the maximum and minimum input data and ignores their weights. Therefore, this paper presents a modified fuzzy CREAM to address all these issues to strengthen the quality of HEP estimation. The proposed approach employs fuzzy degree of each common performance condition (CPC), the weight of each CPC, and the compatibility degree of each activated fuzzy if-then rule together to calculate HEP. The proposed approach is applied for HEP estimation in an oil offloading operation at the selected oil terminal. The final HEP value is estimated at 8.929 × 10−3.Itis concluded that the proposed fuzzy CREAM model can provide more reliable results.

AB - Human error is a significant factor contributing to accidents during oil offloading at oil terminals. Fuzzy cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) is one of the applicable methods to estimate human error probability (HEP). However, the currently used fuzzy CREAM models have issues which weaken the quality of HEP results. Both the max-min fuzzy CREAM and the weighted fuzzy CREAM neglect the compatibility degree of each activated fuzzy if-then rule; besides, the max-min fuzzy CREAM focuses only on the maximum and minimum input data and ignores their weights. Therefore, this paper presents a modified fuzzy CREAM to address all these issues to strengthen the quality of HEP estimation. The proposed approach employs fuzzy degree of each common performance condition (CPC), the weight of each CPC, and the compatibility degree of each activated fuzzy if-then rule together to calculate HEP. The proposed approach is applied for HEP estimation in an oil offloading operation at the selected oil terminal. The final HEP value is estimated at 8.929 × 10−3.Itis concluded that the proposed fuzzy CREAM model can provide more reliable results.

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A modified human reliability analysis method for the estimation of human error probability in the offloading operations at oil terminals

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