Association between the number of eggs and live birth in IVF treatment

an analysis of 400 135 treatment cycles

Sesh Kamal Sunkara, Vivian Rittenberg, Nick Raine-Fenning, Siladitya Bhattacharya, Javier Zamora, Arri Coomarasamy

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

347 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

BACKGROUND While live birth is the principal clinical outcome following in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment, the number of eggs retrieved following ovarian stimulation is often used as a surrogate outcome in clinical practice and research. The aim of this study was to explore the association between egg number and live birth following IVF treatment and identify the number of eggs that would optimize the IVF outcome. METHODS Anonymized data on all IVF cycles performed in the UK from April 1991 to June 2008 were obtained from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). We analysed data from 400 135 IVF cycles. A logistic model was fitted to predict live birth using fractional polynomials to handle the number of eggs as a continuous independent variable. The prediction model, which was validated on a separate HFEA data set, allowed the estimation of the probability of live birth for a given number of eggs, stratified by age group. We produced a nomogram to predict the live birth rate (LBR) following IVF based on the number of eggs and the age of the female. RESULTS The median number of eggs retrieved per cycle was 9 [inter-quartile range (IQR) 6-13]. The overall LBR was 21.3% per fresh IVF cycle. There was a strong association between the number of eggs and LBR; LBR rose with an increasing number of eggs up to ~15, plateaued between 15 and 20 eggs and steadily declined beyond 20 eggs. During 2006-2007, the predicted LBR for women with 15 eggs retrieved in age groups 18-34, 35-37, 38-39 and 40 years and over was 40, 36, 27 and 16%, respectively. There was a steady increase in the LBR per egg retrieved over time since 1991. CONCLUSION The relationship between the number of eggs and live birth, across all female age groups, suggests that the number of eggs in IVF is a robust surrogate outcome for clinical success. The results showed a non-linear relationship between the number of eggs and LBR following IVF treatment. The number of eggs to maximize the LBR is ~15.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1768-1774
Number of pages7
JournalHuman Reproduction
Volume26
Issue number7
Early online date10 May 2011
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2011

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Live Birth
Fertilization in Vitro
Eggs
Birth Rate
Therapeutics
Embryology
Age Groups
Fertilization
Ovum
Nomograms
Ovulation Induction

Keywords

  • IVF treatment
  • egg numbers
  • live birth
  • nomogram

Cite this

Association between the number of eggs and live birth in IVF treatment : an analysis of 400 135 treatment cycles. / Sunkara, Sesh Kamal; Rittenberg, Vivian; Raine-Fenning, Nick; Bhattacharya, Siladitya; Zamora, Javier; Coomarasamy, Arri.

In: Human Reproduction, Vol. 26, No. 7, 07.2011, p. 1768-1774.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Sunkara, Sesh Kamal ; Rittenberg, Vivian ; Raine-Fenning, Nick ; Bhattacharya, Siladitya ; Zamora, Javier ; Coomarasamy, Arri. / Association between the number of eggs and live birth in IVF treatment : an analysis of 400 135 treatment cycles. In: Human Reproduction. 2011 ; Vol. 26, No. 7. pp. 1768-1774.
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abstract = "BACKGROUND While live birth is the principal clinical outcome following in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment, the number of eggs retrieved following ovarian stimulation is often used as a surrogate outcome in clinical practice and research. The aim of this study was to explore the association between egg number and live birth following IVF treatment and identify the number of eggs that would optimize the IVF outcome. METHODS Anonymized data on all IVF cycles performed in the UK from April 1991 to June 2008 were obtained from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). We analysed data from 400 135 IVF cycles. A logistic model was fitted to predict live birth using fractional polynomials to handle the number of eggs as a continuous independent variable. The prediction model, which was validated on a separate HFEA data set, allowed the estimation of the probability of live birth for a given number of eggs, stratified by age group. We produced a nomogram to predict the live birth rate (LBR) following IVF based on the number of eggs and the age of the female. RESULTS The median number of eggs retrieved per cycle was 9 [inter-quartile range (IQR) 6-13]. The overall LBR was 21.3{\%} per fresh IVF cycle. There was a strong association between the number of eggs and LBR; LBR rose with an increasing number of eggs up to ~15, plateaued between 15 and 20 eggs and steadily declined beyond 20 eggs. During 2006-2007, the predicted LBR for women with 15 eggs retrieved in age groups 18-34, 35-37, 38-39 and 40 years and over was 40, 36, 27 and 16{\%}, respectively. There was a steady increase in the LBR per egg retrieved over time since 1991. CONCLUSION The relationship between the number of eggs and live birth, across all female age groups, suggests that the number of eggs in IVF is a robust surrogate outcome for clinical success. The results showed a non-linear relationship between the number of eggs and LBR following IVF treatment. The number of eggs to maximize the LBR is ~15.",
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T1 - Association between the number of eggs and live birth in IVF treatment

T2 - an analysis of 400 135 treatment cycles

AU - Sunkara, Sesh Kamal

AU - Rittenberg, Vivian

AU - Raine-Fenning, Nick

AU - Bhattacharya, Siladitya

AU - Zamora, Javier

AU - Coomarasamy, Arri

PY - 2011/7

Y1 - 2011/7

N2 - BACKGROUND While live birth is the principal clinical outcome following in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment, the number of eggs retrieved following ovarian stimulation is often used as a surrogate outcome in clinical practice and research. The aim of this study was to explore the association between egg number and live birth following IVF treatment and identify the number of eggs that would optimize the IVF outcome. METHODS Anonymized data on all IVF cycles performed in the UK from April 1991 to June 2008 were obtained from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). We analysed data from 400 135 IVF cycles. A logistic model was fitted to predict live birth using fractional polynomials to handle the number of eggs as a continuous independent variable. The prediction model, which was validated on a separate HFEA data set, allowed the estimation of the probability of live birth for a given number of eggs, stratified by age group. We produced a nomogram to predict the live birth rate (LBR) following IVF based on the number of eggs and the age of the female. RESULTS The median number of eggs retrieved per cycle was 9 [inter-quartile range (IQR) 6-13]. The overall LBR was 21.3% per fresh IVF cycle. There was a strong association between the number of eggs and LBR; LBR rose with an increasing number of eggs up to ~15, plateaued between 15 and 20 eggs and steadily declined beyond 20 eggs. During 2006-2007, the predicted LBR for women with 15 eggs retrieved in age groups 18-34, 35-37, 38-39 and 40 years and over was 40, 36, 27 and 16%, respectively. There was a steady increase in the LBR per egg retrieved over time since 1991. CONCLUSION The relationship between the number of eggs and live birth, across all female age groups, suggests that the number of eggs in IVF is a robust surrogate outcome for clinical success. The results showed a non-linear relationship between the number of eggs and LBR following IVF treatment. The number of eggs to maximize the LBR is ~15.

AB - BACKGROUND While live birth is the principal clinical outcome following in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment, the number of eggs retrieved following ovarian stimulation is often used as a surrogate outcome in clinical practice and research. The aim of this study was to explore the association between egg number and live birth following IVF treatment and identify the number of eggs that would optimize the IVF outcome. METHODS Anonymized data on all IVF cycles performed in the UK from April 1991 to June 2008 were obtained from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). We analysed data from 400 135 IVF cycles. A logistic model was fitted to predict live birth using fractional polynomials to handle the number of eggs as a continuous independent variable. The prediction model, which was validated on a separate HFEA data set, allowed the estimation of the probability of live birth for a given number of eggs, stratified by age group. We produced a nomogram to predict the live birth rate (LBR) following IVF based on the number of eggs and the age of the female. RESULTS The median number of eggs retrieved per cycle was 9 [inter-quartile range (IQR) 6-13]. The overall LBR was 21.3% per fresh IVF cycle. There was a strong association between the number of eggs and LBR; LBR rose with an increasing number of eggs up to ~15, plateaued between 15 and 20 eggs and steadily declined beyond 20 eggs. During 2006-2007, the predicted LBR for women with 15 eggs retrieved in age groups 18-34, 35-37, 38-39 and 40 years and over was 40, 36, 27 and 16%, respectively. There was a steady increase in the LBR per egg retrieved over time since 1991. CONCLUSION The relationship between the number of eggs and live birth, across all female age groups, suggests that the number of eggs in IVF is a robust surrogate outcome for clinical success. The results showed a non-linear relationship between the number of eggs and LBR following IVF treatment. The number of eggs to maximize the LBR is ~15.

KW - IVF treatment

KW - egg numbers

KW - live birth

KW - nomogram

U2 - 10.1093/humrep/der106

DO - 10.1093/humrep/der106

M3 - Article

VL - 26

SP - 1768

EP - 1774

JO - Human Reproduction

JF - Human Reproduction

SN - 0268-1161

IS - 7

ER -