Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions

towards an improved application of the concept

David L. Strayer, Carla M. D'Antonio, Franz Essl, Mike S. Fowler, Juergen Geist, Sabine Hilt, Ivan Jarić, Klaus Jöhnk, Clive G. Jones, Xavier Lambin, Alexander W. Latzka, Jan Pergl, Petr Pyšek, Peter Robertson, Menja von Schmalensee, Robert A. Stefansson, Justin Wright, Jonathan M. Jeschke

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

20 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Boom-bust dynamics - the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline - have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1337-1350
Number of pages14
JournalEcology Letters
Volume20
Issue number10
Early online date17 Aug 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2017

Fingerprint

biological invasion
analytical method
trough
trajectory
environmental conditions
test
trajectories
analytical methods
testing
environmental factors

Keywords

  • alien species
  • biological invasions
  • concepts
  • exotic species
  • invasive species
  • long-term
  • management
  • non-native species
  • population collapse
  • population crash
  • population dynamics
  • reckless invaders
  • systematic review

Cite this

Strayer, D. L., D'Antonio, C. M., Essl, F., Fowler, M. S., Geist, J., Hilt, S., ... Jeschke, J. M. (2017). Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept. Ecology Letters, 20(10), 1337-1350. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12822

Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions : towards an improved application of the concept. / Strayer, David L.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Essl, Franz; Fowler, Mike S.; Geist, Juergen; Hilt, Sabine; Jarić, Ivan; Jöhnk, Klaus; Jones, Clive G.; Lambin, Xavier; Latzka, Alexander W.; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Robertson, Peter; von Schmalensee, Menja; Stefansson, Robert A.; Wright, Justin; Jeschke, Jonathan M.

In: Ecology Letters, Vol. 20, No. 10, 10.2017, p. 1337-1350.

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

Strayer, DL, D'Antonio, CM, Essl, F, Fowler, MS, Geist, J, Hilt, S, Jarić, I, Jöhnk, K, Jones, CG, Lambin, X, Latzka, AW, Pergl, J, Pyšek, P, Robertson, P, von Schmalensee, M, Stefansson, RA, Wright, J & Jeschke, JM 2017, 'Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept', Ecology Letters, vol. 20, no. 10, pp. 1337-1350. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12822
Strayer DL, D'Antonio CM, Essl F, Fowler MS, Geist J, Hilt S et al. Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept. Ecology Letters. 2017 Oct;20(10):1337-1350. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12822
Strayer, David L. ; D'Antonio, Carla M. ; Essl, Franz ; Fowler, Mike S. ; Geist, Juergen ; Hilt, Sabine ; Jarić, Ivan ; Jöhnk, Klaus ; Jones, Clive G. ; Lambin, Xavier ; Latzka, Alexander W. ; Pergl, Jan ; Pyšek, Petr ; Robertson, Peter ; von Schmalensee, Menja ; Stefansson, Robert A. ; Wright, Justin ; Jeschke, Jonathan M. / Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions : towards an improved application of the concept. In: Ecology Letters. 2017 ; Vol. 20, No. 10. pp. 1337-1350.
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abstract = "Boom-bust dynamics - the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline - have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.",
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note = "Acknowledgements This study is a contribution of the Invasion Dynamics Network (InDyNet), funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG; JE 288/8-1). Additional support came from DFG projects JE 288/9-1 (JMJ) and SU 623/1-1 (SH); Czech Science Foundation projects 17-19025S, 14-36079G (Centre of Excellence PLADIAS), long-term research development project RVO 67985939, and Praemium Academiae award from The Czech Academy of Sciences (PP, JP); the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (IJ); the US Long-Term Ecological Research Network (AL); the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies (CJ, DS); the U.S. National Science Foundation's LTREB program; and Austrian Science Foundation grant I2096-B16 (FE). We are grateful to Claudia Wiedner and other workshop participants for ideas, inspiration, and constructive criticism, to Shannon LaDeau for helpful advice, and to Kevin Aagaard for providing code for the Bayesian analysis.",
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T2 - towards an improved application of the concept

AU - Strayer, David L.

AU - D'Antonio, Carla M.

AU - Essl, Franz

AU - Fowler, Mike S.

AU - Geist, Juergen

AU - Hilt, Sabine

AU - Jarić, Ivan

AU - Jöhnk, Klaus

AU - Jones, Clive G.

AU - Lambin, Xavier

AU - Latzka, Alexander W.

AU - Pergl, Jan

AU - Pyšek, Petr

AU - Robertson, Peter

AU - von Schmalensee, Menja

AU - Stefansson, Robert A.

AU - Wright, Justin

AU - Jeschke, Jonathan M.

N1 - Acknowledgements This study is a contribution of the Invasion Dynamics Network (InDyNet), funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG; JE 288/8-1). Additional support came from DFG projects JE 288/9-1 (JMJ) and SU 623/1-1 (SH); Czech Science Foundation projects 17-19025S, 14-36079G (Centre of Excellence PLADIAS), long-term research development project RVO 67985939, and Praemium Academiae award from The Czech Academy of Sciences (PP, JP); the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (IJ); the US Long-Term Ecological Research Network (AL); the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies (CJ, DS); the U.S. National Science Foundation's LTREB program; and Austrian Science Foundation grant I2096-B16 (FE). We are grateful to Claudia Wiedner and other workshop participants for ideas, inspiration, and constructive criticism, to Shannon LaDeau for helpful advice, and to Kevin Aagaard for providing code for the Bayesian analysis.

PY - 2017/10

Y1 - 2017/10

N2 - Boom-bust dynamics - the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline - have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.

AB - Boom-bust dynamics - the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline - have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.

KW - alien species

KW - biological invasions

KW - concepts

KW - exotic species

KW - invasive species

KW - long-term

KW - management

KW - non-native species

KW - population collapse

KW - population crash

KW - population dynamics

KW - reckless invaders

KW - systematic review

U2 - 10.1111/ele.12822

DO - 10.1111/ele.12822

M3 - Review article

VL - 20

SP - 1337

EP - 1350

JO - Ecology Letters

JF - Ecology Letters

SN - 1461-023X

IS - 10

ER -