Abstract
Boom-bust dynamics - the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline - have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1337-1350 |
| Number of pages | 14 |
| Journal | Ecology Letters |
| Volume | 20 |
| Issue number | 10 |
| Early online date | 17 Aug 2017 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Oct 2017 |
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Keywords
- alien species
- biological invasions
- concepts
- exotic species
- invasive species
- long-term
- management
- non-native species
- population collapse
- population crash
- population dynamics
- reckless invaders
- systematic review
Cite this
Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions : towards an improved application of the concept. / Strayer, David L.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Essl, Franz; Fowler, Mike S.; Geist, Juergen; Hilt, Sabine; Jarić, Ivan; Jöhnk, Klaus; Jones, Clive G.; Lambin, Xavier; Latzka, Alexander W.; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Robertson, Peter; von Schmalensee, Menja; Stefansson, Robert A.; Wright, Justin; Jeschke, Jonathan M.
In: Ecology Letters, Vol. 20, No. 10, 10.2017, p. 1337-1350.Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions
T2 - towards an improved application of the concept
AU - Strayer, David L.
AU - D'Antonio, Carla M.
AU - Essl, Franz
AU - Fowler, Mike S.
AU - Geist, Juergen
AU - Hilt, Sabine
AU - Jarić, Ivan
AU - Jöhnk, Klaus
AU - Jones, Clive G.
AU - Lambin, Xavier
AU - Latzka, Alexander W.
AU - Pergl, Jan
AU - Pyšek, Petr
AU - Robertson, Peter
AU - von Schmalensee, Menja
AU - Stefansson, Robert A.
AU - Wright, Justin
AU - Jeschke, Jonathan M.
N1 - Acknowledgements This study is a contribution of the Invasion Dynamics Network (InDyNet), funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG; JE 288/8-1). Additional support came from DFG projects JE 288/9-1 (JMJ) and SU 623/1-1 (SH); Czech Science Foundation projects 17-19025S, 14-36079G (Centre of Excellence PLADIAS), long-term research development project RVO 67985939, and Praemium Academiae award from The Czech Academy of Sciences (PP, JP); the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (IJ); the US Long-Term Ecological Research Network (AL); the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies (CJ, DS); the U.S. National Science Foundation's LTREB program; and Austrian Science Foundation grant I2096-B16 (FE). We are grateful to Claudia Wiedner and other workshop participants for ideas, inspiration, and constructive criticism, to Shannon LaDeau for helpful advice, and to Kevin Aagaard for providing code for the Bayesian analysis.
PY - 2017/10
Y1 - 2017/10
N2 - Boom-bust dynamics - the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline - have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.
AB - Boom-bust dynamics - the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline - have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.
KW - alien species
KW - biological invasions
KW - concepts
KW - exotic species
KW - invasive species
KW - long-term
KW - management
KW - non-native species
KW - population collapse
KW - population crash
KW - population dynamics
KW - reckless invaders
KW - systematic review
U2 - 10.1111/ele.12822
DO - 10.1111/ele.12822
M3 - Review article
C2 - 28834087
VL - 20
SP - 1337
EP - 1350
JO - Ecology Letters
JF - Ecology Letters
SN - 1461-023X
IS - 10
ER -