Crashes in real estate prices: causes and predictability

Large swings in real estate prices that end in devastating crashes have been witnessed by many countries in the past two decades. To curtail the damage of these crashes, it is imperative that we understand their causes. This study proposes a model that associates market crashes with periodically collapsing speculative bubbles. Unlike the conventional literature, the identification of the bubble does not rely on assumptions about fundamentals, but on some “fingerprints” of speculation. These fingerprints, theoretically, may also serve as predictors of market crashes. In practice, however, a number of factors may hinder the accuracy of the prediction.