Abstract
Policymakers require consistent and accessible tools to monitor the progress of an epidemic and the impact of control measures in real time. One such measure is the Estimated Dissemination Ratio (EDR), a straightforward, easily replicable, and robust measure of the trajectory of an outbreak that has been used for many years in the control of infectious disease in livestock. It is simple to calculate and explain. Its calculation and use are discussed below together with examples from the current COVID-19 outbreak in the UK. These applications illustrate that EDR can demonstrate changes in transmission rate before they may be clear from the epidemic curve. Thus, EDR can provide an early warning that an epidemic is resuming growth, allowing earlier intervention. A conceptual comparison between EDR and the commonly used reproduction number is also provided.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 675065 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| Journal | Frontiers in public health |
| Volume | 9 |
| Early online date | 14 Jul 2021 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 14 Jul 2021 |
Keywords
- Epidemics
- survaillance
- Mathematical Models
- COVID - 19
- Reproduction number R
- estimated dissemination ratio
- COVID-19
- epidemics
- mathematical models
- reproduction number R
Access to Document
- Perez_etal_FPH_Estimated_Diseemination_Ratio_VoR
Copyright © 2021 Pérez-Reche, Taylor, McGuigan, Conaglen, Forbes, Strachan and Honhold. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/