Estimating changes in Scottish soil carbon stocks using ECOSSE. I. Model description and uncertainties

Joanne Ursula Smith (Corresponding Author), Pia Gottschalk, Jessica Bellarby, Stephen Chapman, Allan Lilly, Willie Towers, John Bell, Kevin Coleman, Dali Rani Nayak, Mark Lee Andrew Richards, Jonathan George Hillier, Helen Flynn, Martin Wattenbach, Matthew Aitkenhead, Jagadeesh Yeluripati, Jennifer Ann Farmer, Ronnie Milne, Amanda Thomson, Chris Evans, Andy Whitmore & 2 others Pete Falloon, Peter Smith

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

63 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

To predict the response of C-rich soils to external change, models are needed that accurately reflect the conditions of these soils. Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils-Sequestration and Emissions (ECOSSE) is a model that allows simulations of soil C and N turnover in both mineral and organic soils using only the limited meteorological, land-use and soil data that is available at the national scale. Because it is able to function at field as well as national scales if appropriate input data are used, field-scale evaluations can be used to determine uncertainty in national simulations. Here we present an evaluation of the uncertainty expected in national-scale simulations of Scotland, using data from the National Soil Inventory of Scotland. This data set provides measurements of C change for the range of soils, climates and land-use types found across Scotland. The simulated values show a high degree of association with the measurements in both total C and change in C content of the soil. Over all sites where land-use change occurred, the average deviation between the simulated and measured values of percentage change in soil C was less than the experimental error (11% simulation error, 53% measurement error). This suggests that the uncertainty in the national-scale simulations will be similar to 11%. Only a small bias in the simulations was observed compared to the measured values, suggesting that a small underestimate of the change in soil C should be expected at the national scale (-4%).

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)179-192
Number of pages14
JournalClimate Research
Volume45
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Keywords

  • organic soils
  • dynamics simulation modelling
  • changes in soil C stocks
  • land-use change
  • uncertainty
  • national-scale simulations
  • organic-matter
  • mineral soils
  • simulation
  • fluxes
  • water
  • grasslands
  • vegetation
  • peatlands
  • rates
  • crop

Cite this

Estimating changes in Scottish soil carbon stocks using ECOSSE. I. Model description and uncertainties. / Smith, Joanne Ursula (Corresponding Author); Gottschalk, Pia; Bellarby, Jessica; Chapman, Stephen; Lilly, Allan; Towers, Willie; Bell, John; Coleman, Kevin; Nayak, Dali Rani; Richards, Mark Lee Andrew; Hillier, Jonathan George; Flynn, Helen; Wattenbach, Martin; Aitkenhead, Matthew; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Farmer, Jennifer Ann; Milne, Ronnie; Thomson, Amanda; Evans, Chris; Whitmore, Andy; Falloon, Pete; Smith, Peter.

In: Climate Research, Vol. 45, No. 1, 2010, p. 179-192.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Smith, JU, Gottschalk, P, Bellarby, J, Chapman, S, Lilly, A, Towers, W, Bell, J, Coleman, K, Nayak, DR, Richards, MLA, Hillier, JG, Flynn, H, Wattenbach, M, Aitkenhead, M, Yeluripati, J, Farmer, JA, Milne, R, Thomson, A, Evans, C, Whitmore, A, Falloon, P & Smith, P 2010, 'Estimating changes in Scottish soil carbon stocks using ECOSSE. I. Model description and uncertainties', Climate Research, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 179-192. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00899
Smith, Joanne Ursula ; Gottschalk, Pia ; Bellarby, Jessica ; Chapman, Stephen ; Lilly, Allan ; Towers, Willie ; Bell, John ; Coleman, Kevin ; Nayak, Dali Rani ; Richards, Mark Lee Andrew ; Hillier, Jonathan George ; Flynn, Helen ; Wattenbach, Martin ; Aitkenhead, Matthew ; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh ; Farmer, Jennifer Ann ; Milne, Ronnie ; Thomson, Amanda ; Evans, Chris ; Whitmore, Andy ; Falloon, Pete ; Smith, Peter. / Estimating changes in Scottish soil carbon stocks using ECOSSE. I. Model description and uncertainties. In: Climate Research. 2010 ; Vol. 45, No. 1. pp. 179-192.
@article{745e7dd5022541cab4b89cf0dc138bbe,
title = "Estimating changes in Scottish soil carbon stocks using ECOSSE. I. Model description and uncertainties",
abstract = "To predict the response of C-rich soils to external change, models are needed that accurately reflect the conditions of these soils. Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils-Sequestration and Emissions (ECOSSE) is a model that allows simulations of soil C and N turnover in both mineral and organic soils using only the limited meteorological, land-use and soil data that is available at the national scale. Because it is able to function at field as well as national scales if appropriate input data are used, field-scale evaluations can be used to determine uncertainty in national simulations. Here we present an evaluation of the uncertainty expected in national-scale simulations of Scotland, using data from the National Soil Inventory of Scotland. This data set provides measurements of C change for the range of soils, climates and land-use types found across Scotland. The simulated values show a high degree of association with the measurements in both total C and change in C content of the soil. Over all sites where land-use change occurred, the average deviation between the simulated and measured values of percentage change in soil C was less than the experimental error (11{\%} simulation error, 53{\%} measurement error). This suggests that the uncertainty in the national-scale simulations will be similar to 11{\%}. Only a small bias in the simulations was observed compared to the measured values, suggesting that a small underestimate of the change in soil C should be expected at the national scale (-4{\%}).",
keywords = "organic soils, dynamics simulation modelling, changes in soil C stocks, land-use change, uncertainty, national-scale simulations, organic-matter, mineral soils, simulation, fluxes, water, grasslands, vegetation, peatlands, rates, crop",
author = "Smith, {Joanne Ursula} and Pia Gottschalk and Jessica Bellarby and Stephen Chapman and Allan Lilly and Willie Towers and John Bell and Kevin Coleman and Nayak, {Dali Rani} and Richards, {Mark Lee Andrew} and Hillier, {Jonathan George} and Helen Flynn and Martin Wattenbach and Matthew Aitkenhead and Jagadeesh Yeluripati and Farmer, {Jennifer Ann} and Ronnie Milne and Amanda Thomson and Chris Evans and Andy Whitmore and Pete Falloon and Peter Smith",
year = "2010",
doi = "10.3354/cr00899",
language = "English",
volume = "45",
pages = "179--192",
journal = "Climate Research",
issn = "0936-577X",
publisher = "Inter-Research",
number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimating changes in Scottish soil carbon stocks using ECOSSE. I. Model description and uncertainties

AU - Smith, Joanne Ursula

AU - Gottschalk, Pia

AU - Bellarby, Jessica

AU - Chapman, Stephen

AU - Lilly, Allan

AU - Towers, Willie

AU - Bell, John

AU - Coleman, Kevin

AU - Nayak, Dali Rani

AU - Richards, Mark Lee Andrew

AU - Hillier, Jonathan George

AU - Flynn, Helen

AU - Wattenbach, Martin

AU - Aitkenhead, Matthew

AU - Yeluripati, Jagadeesh

AU - Farmer, Jennifer Ann

AU - Milne, Ronnie

AU - Thomson, Amanda

AU - Evans, Chris

AU - Whitmore, Andy

AU - Falloon, Pete

AU - Smith, Peter

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - To predict the response of C-rich soils to external change, models are needed that accurately reflect the conditions of these soils. Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils-Sequestration and Emissions (ECOSSE) is a model that allows simulations of soil C and N turnover in both mineral and organic soils using only the limited meteorological, land-use and soil data that is available at the national scale. Because it is able to function at field as well as national scales if appropriate input data are used, field-scale evaluations can be used to determine uncertainty in national simulations. Here we present an evaluation of the uncertainty expected in national-scale simulations of Scotland, using data from the National Soil Inventory of Scotland. This data set provides measurements of C change for the range of soils, climates and land-use types found across Scotland. The simulated values show a high degree of association with the measurements in both total C and change in C content of the soil. Over all sites where land-use change occurred, the average deviation between the simulated and measured values of percentage change in soil C was less than the experimental error (11% simulation error, 53% measurement error). This suggests that the uncertainty in the national-scale simulations will be similar to 11%. Only a small bias in the simulations was observed compared to the measured values, suggesting that a small underestimate of the change in soil C should be expected at the national scale (-4%).

AB - To predict the response of C-rich soils to external change, models are needed that accurately reflect the conditions of these soils. Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils-Sequestration and Emissions (ECOSSE) is a model that allows simulations of soil C and N turnover in both mineral and organic soils using only the limited meteorological, land-use and soil data that is available at the national scale. Because it is able to function at field as well as national scales if appropriate input data are used, field-scale evaluations can be used to determine uncertainty in national simulations. Here we present an evaluation of the uncertainty expected in national-scale simulations of Scotland, using data from the National Soil Inventory of Scotland. This data set provides measurements of C change for the range of soils, climates and land-use types found across Scotland. The simulated values show a high degree of association with the measurements in both total C and change in C content of the soil. Over all sites where land-use change occurred, the average deviation between the simulated and measured values of percentage change in soil C was less than the experimental error (11% simulation error, 53% measurement error). This suggests that the uncertainty in the national-scale simulations will be similar to 11%. Only a small bias in the simulations was observed compared to the measured values, suggesting that a small underestimate of the change in soil C should be expected at the national scale (-4%).

KW - organic soils

KW - dynamics simulation modelling

KW - changes in soil C stocks

KW - land-use change

KW - uncertainty

KW - national-scale simulations

KW - organic-matter

KW - mineral soils

KW - simulation

KW - fluxes

KW - water

KW - grasslands

KW - vegetation

KW - peatlands

KW - rates

KW - crop

U2 - 10.3354/cr00899

DO - 10.3354/cr00899

M3 - Article

VL - 45

SP - 179

EP - 192

JO - Climate Research

JF - Climate Research

SN - 0936-577X

IS - 1

ER -