Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation

Juan Alcalde; Stephanie  Flude; Mark Wilkinson; Gareth Johnson; Katriona  Edlmann; Clare E Bond; Vivian  Scott; Stuart M. V.  Gilfillan; Xènia Ogaya; Stuart R. Haszeldine

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04423-1

Estimating geological CO₂ storage security to deliver on climate mitigation

Juan Alcalde (Corresponding Author), Stephanie Flude, Mark Wilkinson, Gareth Johnson, Katriona Edlmann, Clare E Bond, Vivian Scott, Stuart M. V. Gilfillan, Xènia Ogaya, Stuart R. Haszeldine

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Abstract

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO2 reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic CO2 storage security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. We present a numerical program that calculates CO2 storage security and leakage to the atmosphere over 10kyr. This links processes of geologically measured CO2 subsurface retention, and estimates of CO2 leakage. We model 12 GtCO2 of cumulative storage based on the EU’s 2050 target, commencing injection in 2020. Realistically well-regulated CCS industry in regions with moderate well densities has a 50% probability that leakage remains below 0.0004% yr-1, with less than 4% of injected CO2 migrating to the atmosphere over 10kyr. An unrealistic unregulated case, with unknown and inadequately abandoned wells shows a 50% probability that leakage is below 0.003% yr-1 over 10kyr, meaning more than 70% of the CO2 is securely retained over 10kyr. Hence, geological storage of CO2 is a secure climate change mitigation option.

Original language	English
Article number	2201
Number of pages	13
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	9
Early online date	12 Jun 2018
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04423-1
Publication status	Published - 12 Jun 2018

Keywords

CCS
climate change mitigation
CO2 storage

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Estimating geological CO2 storage security to
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Clare Bond
- School of Geosciences, Geology and Geophysics - Personal Chair
- Centre for Energy Transition
Person: Academic

Cite this

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title = "Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation",

abstract = "Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO2 reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic CO2 storage security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. We present a numerical program that calculates CO2 storage security and leakage to the atmosphere over 10kyr. This links processes of geologically measured CO2 subsurface retention, and estimates of CO2 leakage. We model 12 GtCO2 of cumulative storage based on the EU{\textquoteright}s 2050 target, commencing injection in 2020. Realistically well-regulated CCS industry in regions with moderate well densities has a 50% probability that leakage remains below 0.0004% yr-1, with less than 4% of injected CO2 migrating to the atmosphere over 10kyr. An unrealistic unregulated case, with unknown and inadequately abandoned wells shows a 50% probability that leakage is below 0.003% yr-1 over 10kyr, meaning more than 70% of the CO2 is securely retained over 10kyr. Hence, geological storage of CO2 is a secure climate change mitigation option.",

keywords = "CCS , climate change mitigation, CO2 storage",

author = "Juan Alcalde and Stephanie Flude and Mark Wilkinson and Gareth Johnson and Katriona Edlmann and Bond, {Clare E} and Vivian Scott and Gilfillan, {Stuart M. V.} and X{\`e}nia Ogaya and Haszeldine, {Stuart R.}",

note = "ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Juan Alcalde and Clare Bond were supported by NERC Grant NE/M007251/1 on interpretational uncertainty; Stephanie Flude and Stuart M V Gilfillan were supported by EPSRC Grant EP/K036033/1; R Stuart Haszeldine was supported by Scottish Funding Council, EPSRC Grants EP/P026214/1, EP/K000446/2 and NERC Grant NE/L008475/1; Gareth Johnson was supported by EPSRC Grant EP/P026214/1; Vivian Scott was supported by NERC GHGR programme Grant NE/P019749/1; Katriona Edlmann was supported by H2020 Grant 636811.",

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AU - Alcalde, Juan

AU - Flude, Stephanie

AU - Wilkinson, Mark

AU - Johnson, Gareth

AU - Edlmann, Katriona

AU - Bond, Clare E

AU - Scott, Vivian

AU - Gilfillan, Stuart M. V.

AU - Ogaya, Xènia

AU - Haszeldine, Stuart R.

N1 - ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Juan Alcalde and Clare Bond were supported by NERC Grant NE/M007251/1 on interpretational uncertainty; Stephanie Flude and Stuart M V Gilfillan were supported by EPSRC Grant EP/K036033/1; R Stuart Haszeldine was supported by Scottish Funding Council, EPSRC Grants EP/P026214/1, EP/K000446/2 and NERC Grant NE/L008475/1; Gareth Johnson was supported by EPSRC Grant EP/P026214/1; Vivian Scott was supported by NERC GHGR programme Grant NE/P019749/1; Katriona Edlmann was supported by H2020 Grant 636811.

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N2 - Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO2 reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic CO2 storage security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. We present a numerical program that calculates CO2 storage security and leakage to the atmosphere over 10kyr. This links processes of geologically measured CO2 subsurface retention, and estimates of CO2 leakage. We model 12 GtCO2 of cumulative storage based on the EU’s 2050 target, commencing injection in 2020. Realistically well-regulated CCS industry in regions with moderate well densities has a 50% probability that leakage remains below 0.0004% yr-1, with less than 4% of injected CO2 migrating to the atmosphere over 10kyr. An unrealistic unregulated case, with unknown and inadequately abandoned wells shows a 50% probability that leakage is below 0.003% yr-1 over 10kyr, meaning more than 70% of the CO2 is securely retained over 10kyr. Hence, geological storage of CO2 is a secure climate change mitigation option.

AB - Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO2 reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic CO2 storage security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. We present a numerical program that calculates CO2 storage security and leakage to the atmosphere over 10kyr. This links processes of geologically measured CO2 subsurface retention, and estimates of CO2 leakage. We model 12 GtCO2 of cumulative storage based on the EU’s 2050 target, commencing injection in 2020. Realistically well-regulated CCS industry in regions with moderate well densities has a 50% probability that leakage remains below 0.0004% yr-1, with less than 4% of injected CO2 migrating to the atmosphere over 10kyr. An unrealistic unregulated case, with unknown and inadequately abandoned wells shows a 50% probability that leakage is below 0.003% yr-1 over 10kyr, meaning more than 70% of the CO2 is securely retained over 10kyr. Hence, geological storage of CO2 is a secure climate change mitigation option.

KW - CCS

KW - climate change mitigation

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