External Validation of the Michigan Barrett's Esophagus Prediction Tool

Aaron P. Thrift*, Thomas L. Vaughan, Lesley A. Anderson, David C. Whiteman, Hashem B. El-Serag

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)


Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is a premalignant lesion for esophageal adenocarcinoma, a rapidly increasing, highly fatal cancer.1 Clinical guidelines recommend screening for BE in those with chronic gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and at least 2 risk factors (eg, >50 years of age, white race, obese, tobacco smoking history).2, 3 However, providing clinicians with a tool that allows them to estimate a patients’ risk may better aid them in deciding who to screen for BE and make future resource utilization more efficient. The Michigan Barrett’s Esophagus pREdiction Tool (M-BERET) predicts risk for BE in men attending primary care using information on their frequency of GERD symptoms, age, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and pack-years of cigarette smoking.4 In internal validation, the M-BERET discriminated reasonably well between men with and without BE, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.72. This was significantly better than using GERD symptoms alone (0.72 vs 0.61; P < .001).4 However, this prediction tool needs to be validated in an independent population before its use can be recommended in clinical practice.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1124-1126
Number of pages3
JournalClinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology
Issue number7
Early online date12 Mar 2017
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2017


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