Projections of global and UK bioenergy potential from Miscanthus x giganteus – feedstock yield, carbon cycling and electricity generation in the 21st century

Anita Shepherd* (Corresponding Author), Emma Littleton, John Clifton-Brown, Mike Martin, Astley Hastings

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Abstract In this article, we modify bioenergy model MiscanFor investigating global and UK potentials for Miscanthus x giganteus as a bioenergy resource for carbon capture in the 21st century under the RCP 2.6 climate scenario using SSP2 land use projections. UK bioenergy land projections begin in the 2040s, 60-year average is 0.47 Mega ha rising to 1.9 Mega ha (2090s). Our projections estimate UK energy generation of 0.09 EJ y-1 (60-year average) and 0.37 EJ y-1 (2090s), under stable miscanthus yields of 12 t ha-1 y-1. We estimate aggregated UK soil carbon (C) increases of 0.09 Mt C y-1 (60-year average) and 0.14 Mt C y-1 (2090s) with C capture plus sequestration rate of 2.8 Mt C y-1 (60-year average) and 10.49 Mt C y-1 (2090s). Global bioenergy land use begins 2010, 90-year average is 0.13 Gha rising to 0.19 Gha by the 2090s, miscanthus projections give a 90-year average energy generation of 16 EJ y-1 , rising to 26.7 EJ y-1 by the 2090s. The largest national capabilities for yield, energy and C increase are projected to be Brazil and China. Ninety-year average global miscanthus yield of 1Gt y-1 will be 1.7 Gt y-1 by the 2090s. Global soil C increases less with time, from a century average of 73.6 Mt C y-1 to 42.9 Mt C y-1 by the 2090s with C capture plus sequestration rate of 0.54 Gt C y-1 (60-year average) and 0.81 Gt C y-1 (2090s). M. giganteus could provide just over 5% of the bioenergy requirement by the 2090s to satisfy the RCP 2.6 SSP2 climate scenario. The choice of global land use data introduce a potential source of error. In reality, multiple bioenergy sources will be used suited to local conditions, but results highlight global requirements for development in bioenergy crops, infrastructure and support.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages1
JournalGlobal Change Biology. Bioenergy
Early online date11 Jan 2020
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 11 Jan 2020

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Miscanthus giganteus
electricity generation
twenty first century
bioenergy
electricity
feedstocks
Land use
Feedstocks
Electricity
Miscanthus
Carbon
carbon
Soils
Carbon capture
land use
Crops
energy
climate
energy crops
infrastructure

Keywords

  • bioenergy
  • carbon
  • climate change
  • crop yield
  • energy generation
  • land use
  • MiscanFor
  • miscanthus
  • modelling
  • RCP 2.6

Cite this

@article{f8b48754b4c14a55b9fb7ce7bf2f8ddc,
title = "Projections of global and UK bioenergy potential from Miscanthus x giganteus – feedstock yield, carbon cycling and electricity generation in the 21st century",
abstract = "Abstract In this article, we modify bioenergy model MiscanFor investigating global and UK potentials for Miscanthus x giganteus as a bioenergy resource for carbon capture in the 21st century under the RCP 2.6 climate scenario using SSP2 land use projections. UK bioenergy land projections begin in the 2040s, 60-year average is 0.47 Mega ha rising to 1.9 Mega ha (2090s). Our projections estimate UK energy generation of 0.09 EJ y-1 (60-year average) and 0.37 EJ y-1 (2090s), under stable miscanthus yields of 12 t ha-1 y-1. We estimate aggregated UK soil carbon (C) increases of 0.09 Mt C y-1 (60-year average) and 0.14 Mt C y-1 (2090s) with C capture plus sequestration rate of 2.8 Mt C y-1 (60-year average) and 10.49 Mt C y-1 (2090s). Global bioenergy land use begins 2010, 90-year average is 0.13 Gha rising to 0.19 Gha by the 2090s, miscanthus projections give a 90-year average energy generation of 16 EJ y-1 , rising to 26.7 EJ y-1 by the 2090s. The largest national capabilities for yield, energy and C increase are projected to be Brazil and China. Ninety-year average global miscanthus yield of 1Gt y-1 will be 1.7 Gt y-1 by the 2090s. Global soil C increases less with time, from a century average of 73.6 Mt C y-1 to 42.9 Mt C y-1 by the 2090s with C capture plus sequestration rate of 0.54 Gt C y-1 (60-year average) and 0.81 Gt C y-1 (2090s). M. giganteus could provide just over 5{\%} of the bioenergy requirement by the 2090s to satisfy the RCP 2.6 SSP2 climate scenario. The choice of global land use data introduce a potential source of error. In reality, multiple bioenergy sources will be used suited to local conditions, but results highlight global requirements for development in bioenergy crops, infrastructure and support.",
keywords = "bioenergy, carbon, climate change, crop yield, energy generation, land use, MiscanFor, miscanthus, modelling, RCP 2.6",
author = "Anita Shepherd and Emma Littleton and John Clifton-Brown and Mike Martin and Astley Hastings",
year = "2020",
month = "1",
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doi = "10.1111/gcbb.12671",
language = "English",
journal = "Global Change Biology. Bioenergy",
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Projections of global and UK bioenergy potential from Miscanthus x giganteus – feedstock yield, carbon cycling and electricity generation in the 21st century

AU - Shepherd, Anita

AU - Littleton, Emma

AU - Clifton-Brown, John

AU - Martin, Mike

AU - Hastings, Astley

PY - 2020/1/11

Y1 - 2020/1/11

N2 - Abstract In this article, we modify bioenergy model MiscanFor investigating global and UK potentials for Miscanthus x giganteus as a bioenergy resource for carbon capture in the 21st century under the RCP 2.6 climate scenario using SSP2 land use projections. UK bioenergy land projections begin in the 2040s, 60-year average is 0.47 Mega ha rising to 1.9 Mega ha (2090s). Our projections estimate UK energy generation of 0.09 EJ y-1 (60-year average) and 0.37 EJ y-1 (2090s), under stable miscanthus yields of 12 t ha-1 y-1. We estimate aggregated UK soil carbon (C) increases of 0.09 Mt C y-1 (60-year average) and 0.14 Mt C y-1 (2090s) with C capture plus sequestration rate of 2.8 Mt C y-1 (60-year average) and 10.49 Mt C y-1 (2090s). Global bioenergy land use begins 2010, 90-year average is 0.13 Gha rising to 0.19 Gha by the 2090s, miscanthus projections give a 90-year average energy generation of 16 EJ y-1 , rising to 26.7 EJ y-1 by the 2090s. The largest national capabilities for yield, energy and C increase are projected to be Brazil and China. Ninety-year average global miscanthus yield of 1Gt y-1 will be 1.7 Gt y-1 by the 2090s. Global soil C increases less with time, from a century average of 73.6 Mt C y-1 to 42.9 Mt C y-1 by the 2090s with C capture plus sequestration rate of 0.54 Gt C y-1 (60-year average) and 0.81 Gt C y-1 (2090s). M. giganteus could provide just over 5% of the bioenergy requirement by the 2090s to satisfy the RCP 2.6 SSP2 climate scenario. The choice of global land use data introduce a potential source of error. In reality, multiple bioenergy sources will be used suited to local conditions, but results highlight global requirements for development in bioenergy crops, infrastructure and support.

AB - Abstract In this article, we modify bioenergy model MiscanFor investigating global and UK potentials for Miscanthus x giganteus as a bioenergy resource for carbon capture in the 21st century under the RCP 2.6 climate scenario using SSP2 land use projections. UK bioenergy land projections begin in the 2040s, 60-year average is 0.47 Mega ha rising to 1.9 Mega ha (2090s). Our projections estimate UK energy generation of 0.09 EJ y-1 (60-year average) and 0.37 EJ y-1 (2090s), under stable miscanthus yields of 12 t ha-1 y-1. We estimate aggregated UK soil carbon (C) increases of 0.09 Mt C y-1 (60-year average) and 0.14 Mt C y-1 (2090s) with C capture plus sequestration rate of 2.8 Mt C y-1 (60-year average) and 10.49 Mt C y-1 (2090s). Global bioenergy land use begins 2010, 90-year average is 0.13 Gha rising to 0.19 Gha by the 2090s, miscanthus projections give a 90-year average energy generation of 16 EJ y-1 , rising to 26.7 EJ y-1 by the 2090s. The largest national capabilities for yield, energy and C increase are projected to be Brazil and China. Ninety-year average global miscanthus yield of 1Gt y-1 will be 1.7 Gt y-1 by the 2090s. Global soil C increases less with time, from a century average of 73.6 Mt C y-1 to 42.9 Mt C y-1 by the 2090s with C capture plus sequestration rate of 0.54 Gt C y-1 (60-year average) and 0.81 Gt C y-1 (2090s). M. giganteus could provide just over 5% of the bioenergy requirement by the 2090s to satisfy the RCP 2.6 SSP2 climate scenario. The choice of global land use data introduce a potential source of error. In reality, multiple bioenergy sources will be used suited to local conditions, but results highlight global requirements for development in bioenergy crops, infrastructure and support.

KW - bioenergy

KW - carbon

KW - climate change

KW - crop yield

KW - energy generation

KW - land use

KW - MiscanFor

KW - miscanthus

KW - modelling

KW - RCP 2.6

U2 - 10.1111/gcbb.12671

DO - 10.1111/gcbb.12671

M3 - Article

JO - Global Change Biology. Bioenergy

JF - Global Change Biology. Bioenergy

SN - 1757-1693

ER -