The Role of Threat and Economic Uncertainty in Support for Scottish Independence

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Existing research has consistently shown that perceptions of the potential economic consequences of Scottish independence are vital to levels of support for constitutional change. This paper attempts to investigate the mechanism by which expectations of the economic consequences of independence are formed. A hypothesised causal micro-level mechanism is tested that relates constitutional preferences to the existing skill investments of the individual. Evidence is presented that larger skill investments are associated with a greater likelihood of perceiving economic threats from independence. Additionally, greater perceived threat results in lower support for independence. The impact of uncertainty on both positive and negative economic expectations is also examined. While uncertainty has little effect on negative expectations, it significantly reduces the likelihood of those with positive expectations supporting independence. Overall, it appears that a general economy-wide threat is most significant, and it is conjectured that this stems a lack of information on macroeconomic governance credentials.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)103–124
Number of pages22
JournalScottish Affairs
Volume23
Issue number1
Early online date1 Jan 2014
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2014

Keywords

  • economic voting
  • economic perceptions
  • Scottish independence

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