Towards an improved nowcasting method by evaluating power profiles of PV systems to detect apparently atypical behavior

Sven Killinger, Bjorn Muller, Yves Marie Saint-Drenan, Russell McKenna

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingPublished conference contribution

Abstract

The installed capacity of PV plants has increased dramatically in the past years. A common approach to determine the actual power of an ensemble of PV systems within a specific region typically employs data from measured reference plants. Obviously the precision of the power estimation depends on having representative reference plants, which are not influenced by strong individual characteristics. The goal of this contribution is to detect such apparently atypical behavior of PV systems by comparing their measured power to simulations based on a nearby weather station and clear sky irradiance. Deviations are studied in the course of each day for the year 2012 and 48 PV systems, indicating systematic characteristics independent from meteorological conditions. Additionally, an approach is presented to detect such unexpected deviations automatically. This can be the basis for a dynamic nowcasting algorithm, which selects the reference units based on their (temporal) suitability.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages1-6
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781509056057
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2017
Event44th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017 - Washington, United States
Duration: 25 Jun 201730 Jun 2017

Publication series

Name2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017

Conference

Conference44th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityWashington
Period25/06/1730/06/17

Keywords

  • Atypical Behavior
  • Automated Detection
  • Photovoltaic reference units
  • Temporal Suitability

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